Fluminense vs Santos prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fluminense to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 54% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Fluminense are slight favourites at 40%, with Santos on 32% and the draw on 28%. Fluminense are 4th and Santos 8th in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Fluminense won three and Santos three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fluminense win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Santos win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Fluminense and 1.3 from Santos. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 28% | 31% | Stats preview | #65 | |
| 2 | 37% | 29% | 35% | Updated news and prices | #130 | |
| 3 | 40% | 28% | 32% | Official lineups | #194 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fluminense: last 6
LLWWLL · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Palmeiras CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Flamengo | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Coritiba | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Corinthians | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Platense CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Atletico-MG | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
Santos: last 6
LDWWLW · 11 scored, 11 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Flamengo | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Atletico-MG CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWLW
Season stats
| Fluminense | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.53 |
| 1.23 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.87 | Scored per game at home | 1.47 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 53% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 73% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fluminense won 4, Santos 0, 2 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Santos | 2–3 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Santos | 0–0 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Fluminense | 1–0 | Santos | Serie A |
| 29 Nov 2023 | Santos | 0–3 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Fluminense | 1–0 | Santos | Serie A |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Santos | 2–2 | Fluminense | Serie A |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.Guilherme AranaSuspended
- OutAlissonHip
- OutG. CanoHamstring
Show 3 more
- OutJohn KennedyKnee
- OutMartinelliNot available
- OutMatheus ReisKnee
- Susp.Willian AraoSuspended
- OutArthur MeloMuscle
- OutG. EscobarNot available
Show 2 more
- OutGabriel BrazaoShoulder
- OutVinicius LiraKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Santos
- 8,432 km
- +3 h time zone
- Rest days
- Fluminense 3Santos 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fluminense 3 · Santos 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 22°C · wind 13 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Ramon Abatti
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.65 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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