Bahia vs Flamengo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Flamengo to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 57% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Flamengo are slight favourites at 44%, with Bahia on 30% and the draw on 26%. Bahia are 7th and Flamengo 2nd in Brasileirão Série A. In their last five league games, Bahia won three and Flamengo four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bahia win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Flamengo win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Bahia and 1.6 from Flamengo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bahia: last 6
WLLWWW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Mirassol | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Atletico Paranaense | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at RB Bragantino | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Internacional | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWDD
Flamengo: last 6
DWDWDW · 8 scored, 5 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Estudiantes L.P. CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Fluminense | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Santos | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs RB Bragantino | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Independiente del Valle CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWWL
Season stats
| Bahia | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | Goals scored per game | 1.93 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per game | 0.83 |
| 1.53 | Scored per game at home | 1.93 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 1.93 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 63% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 7% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bahia won 1, Flamengo 5, 0 draws; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Flamengo | 2–0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Bahia | 1–0 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 11 May 2025 | Flamengo | 1–0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Bahia | 0–2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 13 Sep 2024 | Flamengo | 1–0 | Bahia | Copa Do Brasil |
| 29 Aug 2024 | Bahia | 0–1 | Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutLeo VieiraKnee
- OutAyrton LucasThigh
- OutDaniloNot available
- OutEvertton AraujoThigh
Show 2 more
- OutS. NiguezNot available
- OutG. de ArrascaetaWrist
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Flamengo
- 1,210 km
- Rest days
- Bahia 6Flamengo 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bahia 2 · Flamengo 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Wilton Sampaio
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série A average: 2.67 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
