NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
NEC Nijmegen to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 66% · ✓ 4 goals
In short
NEC Nijmegen are favourites at 53%, with Fortuna Sittard on 24% and the draw on 23%. NEC Nijmegen are 11th and Fortuna Sittard 7th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, NEC Nijmegen won none and Fortuna Sittard three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- NEC Nijmegen win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Fortuna Sittard win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 2.0 goals from NEC Nijmegen and 1.3 from Fortuna Sittard. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 23% | 21% | Stats preview | #44 | |
| 2 | 51% | 24% | 25% | Updated news and prices | #90 | |
| 3 | 53% | 24% | 24% | Official lineups | #174 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
NEC Nijmegen: last 6
DDDLLD · 5 scored, 13 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Levski Sofia UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ajax | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs GO Ahead Eagles | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | at Juventus UEFA Europa League | 0–5 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Cambuur | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDLL
Fortuna Sittard: last 6
DWLWWL · 9 scored, 12 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Twente | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Willem II | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Ajax | 1–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | at ADO Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | at Groningen | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs AZ Alkmaar | 0–2 | L |
Last 4 away: WWWD
Season stats
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 1.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 2.25 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 88% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: NEC Nijmegen won 3, Fortuna Sittard 2, 1 draw; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | NEC Nijmegen | 2–3 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Fortuna Sittard | 3–2 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 19 Jan 2025 | NEC Nijmegen | 4–1 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Fortuna Sittard | 0–3 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 2 Apr 2024 | Fortuna Sittard | 1–1 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 15 Dec 2023 | NEC Nijmegen | 4–1 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.A. ThomasSuspended
- OutE. MorGroin
- OutB. NuytinckAnkle
Show 2 more
- OutP. SandlerInjury
- OutD. TadicCalf
- OutR. BayramKnee
- OutJ. DahlhausNot available
- OutI. MarquezInjury
Show 1 more
- OutY. OukiliGroin
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Fortuna Sittard
- 93 km
- Rest days
- NEC Nijmegen 2Fortuna Sittard 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: NEC Nijmegen 2 · Fortuna Sittard 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Alex Bos
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.85 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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