FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ajax Amsterdam to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 72% · ✓ 7 goals
In short
Ajax Amsterdam are favourites at 50%, with FC Groningen on 27% and the draw on 23%. FC Groningen are 6th and Ajax Amsterdam 5th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, FC Groningen won two and Ajax Amsterdam two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Groningen win or draw
- 50%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Ajax Amsterdam win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 69%
- 4+ goals
- 48%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 1.5 goals from FC Groningen and 2.1 from Ajax Amsterdam. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%), 1–3 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% | 23% | 52% | Stats preview | #52 | |
| 2 | 29% | 24% | 47% | Updated news and prices | #96 | |
| 3 | 27% | 23% | 50% | Official lineups | #131 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Groningen: last 6
WWDDLL · 14 scored, 12 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Excelsior | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at GO Ahead Eagles | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Twente | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | at PSV Eindhoven | 1–5 | L |
Last 4 at home: WDLW
Ajax Amsterdam: last 6
LDDWWL · 15 scored, 10 conceded
| 15 Oct | at HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs NEC Nijmegen | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Willem II | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Fortuna Sittard | 5–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs PSV Eindhoven | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LWWWD
Season stats
| FC Groningen | Ajax Amsterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.75 |
| 1.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game away | 3.67 |
| 88% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 88% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | +21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Ajax Amsterdam | 9 | +15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Groningen won 1, Ajax Amsterdam 4, 1 draw; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May 2026 | Ajax Amsterdam | 2–0 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 7 Mar 2026 | FC Groningen | 3–1 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie |
| 2 Dec 2025 | Ajax Amsterdam | 2–0 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 14 May 2025 | FC Groningen | 2–2 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Ajax Amsterdam | 3–1 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 16 May 2023 | FC Groningen | 2–3 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. JengLeg
- OutT. MerceraInjury
- OutE. van der LaanInjury
- OutS. AdingraLacking Match Fitness
- OutS. BerghuisInjury
- OutD. BlindBack
Show 3 more
- OutCaio HenriqueThigh
- OutK. DolbergKnee
- OutA. GaaeiInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Ajax Amsterdam
- 146 km
- Rest days
- FC Groningen 7Ajax Amsterdam 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Groningen 1 · Ajax Amsterdam 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 18 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Dennis Higler
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.81 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
