MVV Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Heracles Almelo to win: 69%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 70% · ✓ 6 goals
In short
Heracles Almelo are clear favourites at 69%, with MVV Maastricht on 14% and the draw on 17%. MVV Maastricht are 9th and Heracles Almelo 1st in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, MVV Maastricht won one and Heracles Almelo three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- MVV Maastricht win or draw
- 30%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 83%
- Heracles Almelo win or draw
- 86%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 48%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.1 goals from MVV Maastricht and 2.5 from Heracles Almelo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 0–2 (9%), 1–3 (8%), 0–3 (7%), 1–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14% | 17% | 69% | Stats preview | #31 | |
| 2 | 17% | 19% | 64% | Updated news and prices | #88 | |
| 3 | 14% | 17% | 70% | Official lineups | #135 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
MVV Maastricht: last 6
LLWLLD · 5 scored, 16 conceded
| 9 Oct | at NAC Breda | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at FC OSS | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Waalwijk | 1–6 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Almere City FC | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Roda | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLDWW
Heracles Almelo: last 6
WDWLWW · 15 scored, 5 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs Waalwijk | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | at Helmond Sport | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Vitesse | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Almere City FC | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong AZ | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs De Graafschap | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWWW
Season stats
| MVV Maastricht | Heracles Almelo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 3.10 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 3.20 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 3.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 12 | +23 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 12 | +14 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 12 | +13 | 22 | LLWWL |
| … | |||||
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV Maastricht | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: MVV Maastricht won 0, Heracles Almelo 1, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2023 | MVV Maastricht | 0–2 | Heracles Almelo | Eerste Divisie |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Heracles Almelo | 2–2 | MVV Maastricht | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Travel for Heracles Almelo
- 180 km
- Rest days
- MVV Maastricht 8Heracles Almelo 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: MVV Maastricht 1 · Heracles Almelo 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Martijn Vos
- Goals in this league
- Eerste Divisie average: 3.50 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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