Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
De Graafschap to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 75% · bookies 75% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
De Graafschap are slight favourites at 40%, with Jong Ajax on 39% and the draw on 21%. Jong Ajax are 18th and De Graafschap 16th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Jong Ajax won one and De Graafschap three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Jong Ajax win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- De Graafschap win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 75%
- 4+ goals
- 56%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 74%
- No
- 26%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Jong Ajax and 2.0 from De Graafschap. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (8%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–3 (5%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 21% | 42% | Stats preview | #181 | |
| 2 | 39% | 21% | 40% | Prices moved | #250 | |
| 3 | 35% | 21% | 44% | Updated news and prices | #254 | |
| 4 | 39% | 21% | 40% | Prices moved | #269 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Jong Ajax: last 6
LDLLWD · 3 scored, 12 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs VVV Venlo | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Roda | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sep | at Jong Utrecht | 1–6 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Waalwijk | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | at Almere City FC | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | at Jong PSV U21 | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDLWL
De Graafschap: last 6
WDWLWL · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at FC Eindhoven | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Den Bosch | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs NAC Breda | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | at Emmen | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Heracles | 0–5 | L |
Last 5 away: DWLLD
Season stats
| Jong Ajax | De Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 2.50 | Goals conceded per game | 2.30 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 12 | -6 | 9 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Jong Ajax won 2, De Graafschap 3, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | De Graafschap | 4–0 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 3 Oct 2025 | Jong Ajax | 2–2 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 19 Apr 2025 | De Graafschap | 2–0 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 9 Dec 2024 | Jong Ajax | 2–0 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 11 Mar 2024 | De Graafschap | 0–2 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Jong Ajax | 1–2 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- Jong Ajax 10De Graafschap 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Jong Ajax 1 · De Graafschap 1
- Referee
- Laurens Gerrets
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
