Jong PSV vs FC Dordrecht prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Jong PSV to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68% · ✗ 1 goals
In short
Jong PSV are slight favourites at 44%, with FC Dordrecht on 32% and the draw on 24%. Jong PSV are 13th and FC Dordrecht 19th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Jong PSV won one and FC Dordrecht one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Jong PSV win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- FC Dordrecht win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Jong PSV and 1.6 from FC Dordrecht. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 24% | 31% | Stats preview | #183 | |
| 2 | 45% | 23% | 31% | Updated news and prices | #256 | |
| 3 | 45% | 24% | 32% | Prices moved | #268 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Jong PSV: last 6
DLDLWD · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 9 Oct | at Roda | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Vitesse | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Jong AZ | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Helmond Sport | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Den Bosch | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Jong Ajax | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWW
FC Dordrecht: last 6
LDWLLL · 8 scored, 17 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs Emmen | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Den Bosch | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Sep | vs Almere City FC | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sep | at FC OSS | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | at FC Eindhoven | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Jong AZ | 3–6 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLD
Season stats
| Jong PSV | FC Dordrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded per game | 2.70 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 90% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 12 | -2 | 16 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | -3 | 15 | DWWDL |
| 14 | FC OSS | 12 | -1 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 12 | -11 | 12 | DWLDL |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | FC Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 12 | -6 | 9 | LLLDL |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 12 | -12 | 7 | LLLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Jong PSV won 2, FC Dordrecht 3, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | Jong PSV | 1–1 | FC Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 23 Aug 2025 | FC Dordrecht | 1–2 | Jong PSV | Eerste Divisie |
| 24 Feb 2025 | Jong PSV | 1–2 | FC Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 4 Oct 2024 | FC Dordrecht | 2–0 | Jong PSV | Eerste Divisie |
| 26 Feb 2024 | Jong PSV | 0–1 | FC Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 10 Nov 2023 | FC Dordrecht | 1–4 | Jong PSV | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- Jong PSV 10FC Dordrecht 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Jong PSV 1 · FC Dordrecht 1
- Referee
- Stan Smit
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
