Moghreb Tetouan vs Widad Témara prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Widad Témara to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 63% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three readings centre on a tight, low-scoring contest with the away side slightly favoured. The Coach sees Moghreb Tetouan's goalless home run as central, the Dressing Room sees two under-pressure sides taking few risks, and the Sceptic finds little to fault in the model. Published numbers of 23-28-50 with 37% over 2.5 look coherent.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks point to goals coming mainly from Widad Témara's stronger away output.
With expected goals of just 0.8 versus 1.4 and only 42% both-teams-score, the 1.4 xG leans away but a draw is very live.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are desperate in mid-table and neither can afford another defeat.
Widad Témara sit 13th with 3 points from 4 games, Moghreb Tetouan 14th with the same 3 points, so there is little separating them. The hosts are winless with three draws and were hammered 1-4 in their last outing, while the visitors have lost three straight.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look about right, though the 37% over 2.5 may be a shade generous.
The model's 23-28-50 split fits the evidence: the hosts' 50% clean-sheet rate and the visitors' 75% blank rate both support under 2.5.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Widad Témara are favourites at 49%, with Moghreb Tetouan on 23% and the draw on 28%. Moghreb Tetouan are 14th and Widad Témara 13th in the Botola Pro. In their last four league games, Moghreb Tetouan won none and Widad Témara one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Moghreb Tetouan win or draw
- 50%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Widad Témara win or draw
- 77%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 37%
- 4+ goals
- 18%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 42%
- No
- 58%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Moghreb Tetouan and 1.4 from Widad Témara. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 0–2 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% | 28% | 50% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #801 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Moghreb Tetouan: last 4
LDDD · 2 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Difaa EL Jadida | 1–4 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs FUS Rabat | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Ittihad Tanger | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Renaissance Berkane | 0–0 | D |
Last 2 at home: DD
Widad Témara: last 4
LLLW · 3 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Kawkab Marrakech | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Oct | at FAR Rabat | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs UTS Rabat | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Wydad AC | 3–1 | W |
Last 2 away: LW
Season stats
| Moghreb Tetouan | Widad Témara | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 0.75 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 75% |
League matches only, 4 games each.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ittihad Tanger | 4 | +2 | 7 | WLDW |
| 6 | Maghreb Fès | 4 | +1 | 7 | LDWW |
| 7 | UTS Rabat | 5 | +0 | 7 | LLDWW |
| 8 | Widad Témara | 5 | +2 | 6 | WLLLW |
| 9 | Difaa EL Jadida | 4 | +0 | 6 | WWLL |
| 10 | Raja Casablanca | 3 | +1 | 5 | DDW |
| 11 | FAR Rabat | 2 | +1 | 4 | DW |
| 12 | Amal Tiznit | 5 | -5 | 4 | LDLWL |
| 13 | Renaissance Berkane | 3 | +0 | 3 | DDD |
| 14 | Moghreb Tetouan | 5 | -6 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 15 | FUS Rabat | 4 | -2 | 2 | DDLL |
| 16 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 4 | -5 | 1 | DLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Moghreb Tetouan won 1, Widad Témara 0, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Moghreb Tetouan | 1–1 | Widad Témara | Botola 2 |
| 11 Oct 2025 | Widad Témara | 1–3 | Moghreb Tetouan | Botola 2 |
Match context
- Rest days
- Moghreb Tetouan 7Widad Témara 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Moghreb Tetouan 1 · Widad Témara 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
