Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Newcastle Jets to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On goals, the coach and sceptic both sit near the 63% over line, with both-teams-score at 63% supporting a lively afternoon in Newcastle.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Wellington Phoenix's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Wellington Phoenix favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely enough to back goals, but Wellington's defence is the standout.
Newcastle score and concede 1.50 per game with both teams scoring in 100% of matches and no clean sheets. Wellington concede just 0.50 per game with a 50% clean-sheet rate, yet have failed to score in 0% of matches. Expect Newcastle to find the net while Wellington stay tight at the back.
Wellington Phoenix: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureWellington's perfect start meets Newcastle's unbeaten but winless run.
Wellington sit 1st with 6 points from 2 wins, scoring 4 and conceding 1. Newcastle are 7th with 2 points from two draws, 3-3 on goals. Both had 2 games in 14 days and near-identical rest, so freshness is even. Wellington carry momentum, Newcastle resilience.
Wellington Phoenix: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market leans heavily home, but Wellington's form argues the gap is too wide.
Newcastle's two draws and 1.00 scored per game at home suggest the home lean is a touch high; I shade Wellington up.
Wellington Phoenix: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Newcastle Jets are favourites at 49%, with Wellington Phoenix on 27% and the draw on 24%. Newcastle Jets are 7th and Wellington Phoenix 1st in the A-League Men. In their last two matches across all competitions, Newcastle Jets won none and Wellington Phoenix two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Newcastle Jets win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Wellington Phoenix win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Newcastle Jets and 1.3 from Wellington Phoenix. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (7%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% | 24% | 27% | Stats preview | #1798 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Newcastle Jets: last 2
DD · 3 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Macarthur | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Central Coast Mariners | 2–2 | D |
Last 1 at home: D
Wellington Phoenix: last 2
WW · 4 scored, 1 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Central Coast Mariners | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Melbourne Victory | 2–1 | W |
Season stats
| Newcastle Jets | Wellington Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | – |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
A-League Men table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | +3 | 4 | WD |
| 3 | Macarthur | 2 | +1 | 4 | DW |
| 4 | Sydney | 2 | +1 | 4 | WD |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | +1 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Auckland | 2 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 10 | Melbourne City | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Newcastle Jets 7Wellington Phoenix 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Newcastle Jets 2 · Wellington Phoenix 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 23°C · wind 15 km/h
- Dry
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
