Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mufulira to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 69% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a tight, low-scoring fixture: Mufulira's model edge is trimmed by their lack of goals, while Chirundu's steadier start earns respect. The published 46/30/24 split sits within a few points of every card, and the 31% over 2.5 line looks about right for two sides who both fail to score two-thirds of the time.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks and two tidy defences point to a low-scoring draw-ish game
Both sides have kept clean sheets in 67% of matches and both failed to score in 67%.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePressure sits on Mufulira, still chasing a first win, but Chirundu arrive steadier
Mufulira sit 18th with 2 points from 3 (W0 D2 L1) after draws at ZESCO United and Red Arrows. Chirundu are 12th with 4 points and just beat Mutondo Stars 3-0. Both had 7 days' rest, so fatigue is equal - table position gives Chirundu the calmer frame of mind.
Mufulira: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 46% home lean looks generous given Mufulira's blunt attack
Mufulira have scored 1 goal in 3 games (0.33 per game) and 0 away, with a 1-4 home defeat to Green Eagles their only home data point. Chirundu kept a 3-0 win and two clean sheets in three. The 46% home probability seems a touch high; 31% over 2.5 is fair given both teams' 67% fail-to-score rates.
Chirundu Utd: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Mufulira Wanderers are favourites at 46%, with Chirundu Utd on 24% and the draw on 30%. Mufulira Wanderers are 18th and Chirundu Utd 12th in the Zambia Super League. In their last three league games, Mufulira Wanderers won none and Chirundu Utd one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mufulira Wanderers win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Chirundu Utd win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 58%
- 3+ goals
- 31%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 37%
- No
- 63%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Mufulira Wanderers and 0.8 from Chirundu Utd. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% | 30% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1286 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mufulira Wanderers: last 3
DDL · 1 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | at ZESCO United | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Red Arrows | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Green Eagles | 1–4 | L |
Last 1 at home: L
Chirundu Utd: last 3
WDL · 3 scored, 2 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Mutondo Stars | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Nkwazi | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Green Buffaloes | 0–2 | L |
Last 2 away: DL
Season stats
| Mufulira Wanderers | Chirundu Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 0.67 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 0.00 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 0% |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 67% |
| 67% | Failed to score | 67% |
League matches only, 3 games each.
Zambia Super League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Konkola Blades | 4 | +3 | 9 | WLWW |
| 5 | Green Buffaloes | 4 | +3 | 8 | WDDW |
| 6 | Zanaco | 4 | +3 | 7 | WDLW |
| 7 | Chirundu Utd | 4 | +2 | 7 | WWDL |
| 8 | Power Dynamos | 4 | +0 | 6 | LWWL |
| 9 | ZESCO United | 4 | +4 | 5 | WDLD |
| 10 | Trident | 4 | +3 | 4 | WLDL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | NAPSA Stars | 4 | -1 | 3 | LDDD |
| 16 | Nkwazi | 4 | -1 | 3 | DDDL |
| 17 | Nchanga Rangers | 4 | -3 | 3 | WLLL |
| 18 | Mufulira Wanderers | 4 | -4 | 2 | LDDL |
| 19 | Makeni All Stars | 4 | -9 | 1 | LLLD |
| 20 | Mutondo Stars | 4 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Mufulira Wanderers 7Chirundu Utd 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mufulira Wanderers 1 · Chirundu Utd 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
