Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mamelodi Sundowns to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Mamelodi Sundowns are clear favourites at 61%, with Durban City on 16% and the draw on 23%. Mamelodi Sundowns are 1st and Durban City 10th in the South African Premiership. In their last five league games, Mamelodi Sundowns won four and Durban City one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mamelodi Sundowns win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Durban City win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.8 from Durban City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% | 22% | 16% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2036 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mamelodi Sundowns: last 6
DDWDWW · 11 scored, 4 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Wiliete CAF Champions League | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Wiliete CAF Champions League | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | at Richards Bay | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Chippa United | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Siwelele | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Golden Arrows | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Durban City: last 6
WWLDLD · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at ASPL 2000 CAF Confederation Cup | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs ASPL 2000 CAF Confederation Cup | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Amazulu | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Milford FC | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | at Orlando Pirates | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Sep | vs Stellenbosch | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: WDLWL
Season stats
| Mamelodi Sundowns | Durban City | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.56 | Goals scored per game | 0.62 |
| 0.89 | Goals conceded per game | 0.88 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 12% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 9 and 8 games.
South African Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | +15 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | +18 | 22 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | +4 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | +3 | 15 | WDWDL |
| … | |||||
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | +1 | 10 | DWDDL |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | -1 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | -3 | 8 | LWDDD |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | -2 | 7 | LDLDW |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | -3 | 7 | LLDDD |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | -8 | 7 | WLWLL |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLLDW |
Match context
- Travel for Durban City
- 535 km
- Rest days
- Mamelodi Sundowns 8Durban City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mamelodi Sundowns 2 · Durban City 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 30°C · wind 7 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- South African Premiership average: 2.29 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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