Cesena vs US Avellino prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cesena to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✓ 2 goals
In short
Cesena are slight favourites at 40%, with US Avellino on 29% and the draw on 31%. Cesena are 11th and US Avellino 8th in Serie B. In their last five league games, Cesena won one and US Avellino three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cesena win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- US Avellino win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Cesena and 1.1 from US Avellino. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 31% | 29% | Stats preview | #54 | |
| 2 | 40% | 30% | 30% | Updated news and prices | #87 | |
| 3 | 40% | 31% | 29% | Official lineups | #145 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cesena: last 6
LDDDWD · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Benevento | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Virtus Entella | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 at home: DDD
US Avellino: last 6
WLDWWL · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs Sampdoria | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Modena | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Vicenza Virtus | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
Last 3 away: LWL
Season stats
| Cesena | US Avellino | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.83 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.17 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 83% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Serie B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | +6 | 14 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Pisa | 7 | +5 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | +3 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 8 | US Avellino | 8 | +3 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 9 | Padova | 8 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 10 | Arezzo | 8 | -9 | 10 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Virtus Entella | 8 | +1 | 9 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | -4 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 13 | Hellas Verona | 7 | +2 | 8 | DLWLW |
| 14 | Juve Stabia | 8 | +1 | 8 −4 | WWDDD |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | -4 | 8 | LDLDD |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | -2 | 7 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | -5 | 6 | LLDDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cesena won 3, US Avellino 1, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | US Avellino | 3–1 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Cesena | 3–0 | US Avellino | Serie B |
| 10 Feb 2018 | US Avellino | 1–1 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 15 Sep 2017 | Cesena | 3–1 | US Avellino | Serie B |
| 22 Apr 2017 | US Avellino | 1–1 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 26 Nov 2016 | Cesena | 3–0 | US Avellino | Serie B |
Match context
- Travel for US Avellino
- 414 km
- Rest days
- Cesena 8US Avellino 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cesena 1 · US Avellino 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 21°C · wind 15 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Daniele Perenzoni
- Goals in this league
- Serie B average: 2.73 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
