Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Vasco DA Gama 35%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 66% · bookies 66% · ✗ 4 goals
In short
Vasco DA Gama are slight favourites at 35%, with Boca Juniors on 33% and the draw on 32%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Vasco DA Gama won three and Boca Juniors three. The prices point to about 2.1 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vasco DA Gama win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 68%
- Boca Juniors win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 61%
- 3+ goals
- 34%
- 4+ goals
- 15%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Vasco DA Gama and 1.0 from Boca Juniors. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 0–0 (13%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 30% | 34% | Stats preview | #316 | |
| 2 | 35% | 29% | 36% | Prices moved | #328 | |
| 3 | 35% | 32% | 33% | Prices moved | #386 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vasco DA Gama: last 6
LWDWWW · 10 scored, 2 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Sao Paulo Serie A | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Boca Juniors | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Remo Serie A | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Botafogo Serie A | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Coritiba Serie A | 5–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Santa Fe | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWL
Boca Juniors: last 6
WLDWWD · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Talleres Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Vasco DA Gama | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDDD
Season stats
| Vasco DA Gama | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.54 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 0.69 | Goals conceded per game | 0.57 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.43 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 54% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 13 and 7 games.
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Vasco DA Gama won 1, Boca Juniors 0, 0 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Boca Juniors | 0–1 | Vasco DA Gama | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
Match context
- Rest days
- Vasco DA Gama 3Boca Juniors 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vasco DA Gama 4 · Boca Juniors 3
- Referee
- Jesus Valenzuela
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
