Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Palmeiras to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 62% · bookies 62%
In short
Palmeiras are favourites at 57%, with Fluminense on 14% and the draw on 29%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Palmeiras won four and Fluminense two. The prices point to about 2.2 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Palmeiras win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Fluminense win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 38%
- 4+ goals
- 18%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 38%
- No
- 62%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Palmeiras and 0.7 from Fluminense. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 0–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Palmeiras: last 6
WWWWDL · 11 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Atletico Paranaense Serie A | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Corinthians Serie A | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bahia Serie A | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Gremio Serie A | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | at LDU de Quito | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Fluminense: last 6
LLLWWL · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Santos Serie A | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Flamengo Serie A | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Coritiba Serie A | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Corinthians Serie A | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | at Platense | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLLD
Season stats
| Palmeiras | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 0.91 | Goals conceded per game | 1.09 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 36% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 27% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras won 3, Fluminense 2, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Fluminense | 1–2 | Palmeiras | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Fluminense | 3–2 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Palmeiras | 2–1 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Palmeiras | 0–0 | Fluminense | Serie A |
| 23 Jul 2025 | Fluminense | 1–2 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Palmeiras | 0–1 | Fluminense | Serie A |
Match context
- Rest days
- Palmeiras 4Fluminense 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Palmeiras 4 · Fluminense 4
- Referee
- Esteban Ostojich
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
