Flamengo vs Estudiantes de La Plata prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Flamengo to win: 72%, about 3 in 4
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57%
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts think Flamengo's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFlamengo's home scoring should overwhelm an away side that struggles to score
Estudiantes' matches go over 2.5 only 18% of the time, so a low-scoring home win fits the data.
Flamengo: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEqual rest, but Flamengo's home form and momentum tell
Both sides have 4 days' rest and 3 games in 14 days, so fatigue is even. Flamengo's last 5 at home read W W D W W with 8 scored and 3 conceded, and they beat Bahia 3-0 last time out. Estudiantes have lost 2 of their last 3.
Flamengo: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Flamengo are clear favourites at 72%, with Estudiantes de La Plata on 8% and the draw on 20%. In their last five matches across all competitions, Flamengo won three and Estudiantes de La Plata one. The prices point to about 2.4 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Flamengo win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Estudiantes de La Plata win or draw
- 28%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 32%
- No
- 68%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Flamengo and 0.5 from Estudiantes de La Plata. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (18%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (17%), 3–0 (11%), 0–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% | 20% | 9% | Stats preview | #519 | |
| 2 | 79% | 16% | 6% | Prices moved | #596 | |
| 3 | 72% | 20% | 8% | Prices moved | #636 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Flamengo: last 6
WDWDWD · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Bahia Serie A | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Estudiantes L.P. | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Fluminense Serie A | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Santos Serie A | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs RB Bragantino Serie A | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Independiente del Valle | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDWW
Estudiantes de La Plata: last 6
LDDWLW · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Flamengo | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Central Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Oct | vs Gimnasia M. Liga Profesional Argentina | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Sep | at Corinthians | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWLL
Season stats
| Flamengo | Estudiantes de La Plata | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.64 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 30% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 18% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 10 and 11 games.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Flamengo won 2, Estudiantes de La Plata 1, 2 draws; 1.4 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 0–0 | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 21 May 2026 | Flamengo | 1–0 | Estudiantes de La Plata | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 1–1 | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 26 Sep 2025 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 1–0 | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 19 Sep 2025 | Flamengo | 2–1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
Match context
- Rest days
- Flamengo 4Estudiantes de La Plata 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Flamengo 3 · Estudiantes de La Plata 3
- Referee
- Gustavo Tejera
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
