Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bayer Leverkusen to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 68% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are favourites at 59%, with SC Freiburg on 20% and the draw on 21%. Bayer Leverkusen are 4th and SC Freiburg 3rd in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, Bayer Leverkusen won three and SC Freiburg four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bayer Leverkusen win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- SC Freiburg win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Bayer Leverkusen and 1.2 from SC Freiburg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 21% | 20% | Stats preview | #51 | |
| 2 | 54% | 22% | 24% | Updated news and prices | #100 | |
| 3 | 59% | 21% | 20% | Official lineups | #110 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bayer Leverkusen: last 6
WWWWDW · 18 scored, 5 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at FSV Mainz 05 | 4–3 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs RB Leipzig | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Celje UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at FC Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Union Berlin | 4–0 | W |
Last 3 at home: WWW
SC Freiburg: last 6
WWDWWW · 17 scored, 6 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs FK Jablonec UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at SC Paderborn 07 | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Werder Bremen | 4–1 | W |
Last 4 away: DWWW
Season stats
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | Goals scored per game | 2.80 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded per game | 0.80 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.67 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 80% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 5 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 | WDWWD |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 | LWDWW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | +7 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen won 4, SC Freiburg 0, 2 draws; 4.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | SC Freiburg | 3–3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–0 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 4 May 2025 | SC Freiburg | 2–2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5–1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 17 Mar 2024 | SC Freiburg | 2–3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutE. Ben SeghirMuscle
- OutM. CulbreathFoot
- OutG. DoueCalf
Show 3 more
- OutK. EichhornIllness
- OutC. KofaneMuscle
- OutM. TerrierMuscle
- Susp.Y. SuzukiSuspended
- OutB. YilmazLacking Match Fitness
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for SC Freiburg
- 343 km
- Rest days
- Bayer Leverkusen 2SC Freiburg 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bayer Leverkusen 2 · SC Freiburg 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Florian Badstubner
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.71 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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