Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Newcastle Jets to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean home but differ on the margin: the coach backs the published 45/24/30 on goals grounds, the dressing room stays close to it on equal rest, while the sceptic trims Newcastle Jets slightly given Macarthur's 3-2 head-to-head lead.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth teams score rates and expected goals say this stays open at both ends.
The numbers point to goals: 65% for both teams to score and 65% for over 2.5. Newcastle Jets averaged 2 goals scored and 2 conceded in their opening draw, Macarthur won 2-1 and kept no clean sheet either.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEqual rest, but Macarthur's perfect start gives them momentum over a winless Jets side.
Macarthur sit 3rd with 3 points from their opener; Newcastle Jets are 5th on 1 point after drawing 2-2. Neither side has a wider gap to the ZONES to worry about after one round, and both have had 6 days' rest with just 1 game in 14 days, so freshness is equal.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongA 45% home line looks a touch rich given Macarthur lead the recent head-to-head.
Yet the published numbers lean 45% to Newcastle Jets. That looks slightly high for a side trailing the head-to-head; a fairer split is closer to even, and 4.7 goals per game supports the over.
Newcastle Jets: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Newcastle Jets are favourites at 46%, with Macarthur on 30% and the draw on 24%. Newcastle Jets are 5th and Macarthur 3rd in the A-League Men. In their last match across all competitions, Newcastle Jets won none and Macarthur one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Newcastle Jets win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Macarthur win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Newcastle Jets and 1.5 from Macarthur. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 24% | 30% | Stats preview | #647 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Newcastle Jets: last 1
D · 2 scored, 2 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Central Coast Mariners | 2–2 | D |
Macarthur: last 1
W · 2 scored, 1 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Perth Glory | 2–1 | W |
A-League Men table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | +3 | 4 | WD |
| 3 | Macarthur | 2 | +1 | 4 | DW |
| 4 | Sydney | 2 | +1 | 4 | WD |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | +1 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Auckland | 2 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 10 | Melbourne City | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Newcastle Jets won 2, Macarthur 3, 1 draw; 4.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2026 | Macarthur | 3–2 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Newcastle Jets | 1–0 | Macarthur | A-League |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Newcastle Jets | 4–5 | Macarthur | A-League |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Newcastle Jets | 3–0 | Macarthur | Australia Cup |
| 28 Mar 2025 | Macarthur | 3–3 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| 12 Jan 2025 | Newcastle Jets | 1–3 | Macarthur | A-League |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutO. CockleNot available
- OutM. CooperFoot
- OutO. FryerKnee
Show 8 more
- OutO. GonzalezNot available
- OutJ. GoodwinNot available
- OutW. KennedyNot available
- OutA. NassiepNot available
- OutA. NunesNot available
- OutC. PrestwidgeNot available
- OutA. ReidNot available
- OutK. WalsheNot available
No absences reported.
From our match data feed · updated Sydney time.
Match context
- Rest days
- Newcastle Jets 6Macarthur 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Newcastle Jets 1 · Macarthur 1
- Referee
- Alexander George King
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
