Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Brisbane Roar to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three lean Brisbane but by modest margins: the coach sees an open game with both attacks likely to score, the dressing room notes Perth's early-season pressure after their opening defeat, and the sceptic thinks Perth's strong recent head-to-head makes them slightly undervalued. The published numbers of 45/27/28 look broadly sound, with Brisbane narrow favourites in a game the numbers expect to produce goals.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Brisbane Roar's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth attacks should find space in an open, goal-friendly contest
The numbers point to goals: 2+ goals at 76%, 3+ at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Brisbane average 1.5 expected goals at home against Perth's 1.2, and the head-to-head has averaged 3.2 goals per game across the last six meetings.
Brisbane Roar: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEarly-season pressure sits heavier on Perth after their opening defeat
Brisbane start with a clean slate at 0 points from 0 games, sitting 9th, while Perth are already 10th and pointless after losing their opener 2-1 at Macarthur. With both sides near the bottom, an early win matters and home advantage gives Brisbane the steadier platform.
Brisbane Roar: clearly underrated
Med The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHead-to-head history argues Perth are slightly underestimated
Perth have won 3 of the last 6 against Brisbane, including a 2-1 win in 2026, yet the published numbers give them just 28%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Brisbane Roar are slight favourites at 43%, with Perth Glory on 30% and the draw on 27%. Brisbane Roar are 8th and Perth Glory 11th in the A-League Men. The prices point to about 2.7 goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Brisbane Roar win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Perth Glory win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Brisbane Roar and 1.2 from Perth Glory. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Perth Glory: last 1
L · 1 scored, 2 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Macarthur | 1–2 | L |
Last 1 away: L
A-League Men table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | +3 | 4 | WD |
| 3 | Macarthur | 2 | +1 | 4 | DW |
| 4 | Sydney | 2 | +1 | 4 | WD |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | +1 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Auckland | 2 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 10 | Melbourne City | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | -2 | 0 | LL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Brisbane Roar won 2, Perth Glory 3, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Perth Glory | 2–1 | Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Brisbane Roar | 1–1 | Perth Glory | A-League |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Perth Glory | 1–2 | Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Perth Glory | 1–3 | Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Brisbane Roar | 0–1 | Perth Glory | A-League |
| 23 Jul 2024 | Brisbane Roar | 2–4 | Perth Glory | Australia Cup |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutD. ValkanisLeg
- OutM. DenchNot available
- OutB. KaltackNot available
- OutC. NieuwenhofNot available
Show 2 more
- OutT. OstlerBroken jawbone
- OutC. A. ShamoonNot available
From our match data feed · updated Sydney time.
Match context
- Rest days
- Brisbane Roar –Perth Glory 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Brisbane Roar – · Perth Glory 1
- Referee
- Alireza Faghani
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
