Prediction ledger
Every prediction version we publish, by publication day (UTC). Days are sealed after midnight UTC with a SHA-256 hash; each day includes the previous day's hash.
| Day | Predictions | SHA-256 | Data |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 5 | open – sealed after 00:00 UTC |
How to verify
- Download a day's JSON file.
- Run
sha256sum 2026-10-16.json(macOS:shasum -a 256) and compare it with the hash on the day's page. - Check that the file's
previous_day_sha256equals the hash of the day before.
Probabilities are stored in a database that rejects edits and any new prediction after kick-off.