Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Braga to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✗ 3 goals
In short
Braga are favourites at 59%, with Gil Vicente on 17% and the draw on 24%. Braga are 9th and Gil Vicente 8th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Braga won two and Gil Vicente one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Braga win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Gil Vicente win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Braga and 0.8 from Gil Vicente. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% | 23% | 14% | Stats preview | #215 | |
| 2 | 61% | 24% | 15% | Updated news and prices | #263 | |
| 3 | 64% | 23% | 14% | Prices moved | #273 | |
| 4 | 59% | 24% | 17% | Prices moved | #284 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Braga: last 6
LLDWLW · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 15 Oct | at FC Copenhagen UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Sporting CP | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Santa Clara | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Estoril | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | at Estrela | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Alverca | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
Gil Vicente: last 6
WDLLDW · 5 scored, 5 conceded
| 9 Oct | at Moreirense | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Maritimo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Benfica | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Academico Viseu | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Famalicao | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | vs Casa Pia | 2–0 | W |
Last 3 away: WLD
Season stats
| Braga | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded per game | 0.71 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 14% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | +1 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Braga | 8 | -1 | 11 | LLDWL |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | -7 | 8 | LDWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Braga won 2, Gil Vicente 2, 2 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Gil Vicente | 2–1 | Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Braga | 0–1 | Gil Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Braga | 2–0 | Gil Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Gil Vicente | 0–0 | Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Braga | 2–1 | Gil Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Gil Vicente | 3–3 | Braga | Primeira Liga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Braga 4Gil Vicente 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Braga 2 · Gil Vicente 1
- Referee
- Gustavo Correia
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling