Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Montpellier to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Montpellier are favourites at 47%, with Rodez Aveyron on 28% and the draw on 25%. Rodez Aveyron are 17th and Montpellier 5th in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, Rodez Aveyron won none and Montpellier two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Rodez Aveyron win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Montpellier win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Rodez Aveyron and 1.7 from Montpellier. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 0–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 31% | 37% | Stats preview | #202 | |
| 2 | 32% | 28% | 39% | Prices moved | #245 | |
| 3 | 33% | 27% | 40% | Updated news and prices | #260 | |
| 4 | 33% | 27% | 40% | Prices moved | #272 | |
| 5 | 29% | 25% | 47% | Prices moved | #290 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 5 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Rodez Aveyron: last 6
LLLLDW · 11 scored, 15 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Saint Etienne | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Nancy | 3–4 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Grenoble | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Metz | 1–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs PAU | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | at Nantes | 5–2 | W |
Last 4 at home: LLDW
Montpellier: last 6
WDWLDW · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs Grenoble | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Reims | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs PAU | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Saint Etienne | 1–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | at Dunkerque | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWWL
Season stats
| Rodez Aveyron | Montpellier | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.25 | Goals conceded per game | 0.62 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 12% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 62% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 10 | +15 | 25 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Nancy | 10 | +4 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Montpellier | 9 | +6 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Reims | 9 | +8 | 17 | WDDWD |
| 5 | PAU | 10 | +3 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 9 | +2 | 17 | LWWWW |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Guingamp | 10 | -2 | 11 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Sochaux | 10 | -4 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Rodez Aveyron | 10 | -6 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Boulogne | 9 | +0 | 9 | WDLDD |
| 15 | Nantes | 10 | -6 | 8 | LLDWL |
| 16 | Grenoble | 10 | -8 | 8 | LLLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Rodez Aveyron won 3, Montpellier 3, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Montpellier | 4–2 | Rodez Aveyron | Friendlies Clubs |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Rodez Aveyron | 1–0 | Montpellier | Ligue 2 |
| 31 Oct 2025 | Montpellier | 2–0 | Rodez Aveyron | Ligue 2 |
| 18 Jul 2025 | Montpellier | 0–2 | Rodez Aveyron | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Dec 2022 | Montpellier | 5–0 | Rodez Aveyron | Friendlies Clubs |
| 9 Jul 2022 | Montpellier | 0–1 | Rodez Aveyron | Friendlies Clubs |
Match context
- Rest days
- Rodez Aveyron 9Montpellier 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Rodez Aveyron 1 · Montpellier 1
- Referee
- Geoffrey Kubler
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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