Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County prediction
League One · Matchday 11 · Adams Park, High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Wycombe, 15th with 10 points, host relegation-threatened Notts County (22nd, 7 points) at Adams Park. Wycombe were beaten 4-1 at home by Luton last time out, while County arrive on a five-game winless league run but fresh from a midweek cup win. Both sides carry defensive weaknesses, which keeps goals in play.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Wycombe Wanderers win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Notts County win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Wycombe Wanderers and 1.3 from Notts County. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Hazard
Defenders
- Casey
- Cook
- Taylor
- Grimmer
Midfielders
- Morley
- Scowen
- Harvie
Forwards
- Onyedinma
- Wareham
- Woodrow
Goalkeeper
- Belshaw
Defenders
- Ness
- McDonald
- Bedeau
- Tsaroulla
Midfielders
- Sanders
- Finneran
- Samuels-Smith
- Grant
Forwards
- Roberts
- Kanu
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Wycombe sit 15th in League One with 10 points from 9 games and are still without a home league win this season (W0 D3 L2).[2][4]
- Notts County are 22nd with 7 points from 8 games and have not won in their last five league matches.[2][3][7]
- Wycombe lost 4-1 at home to Luton Town on 10 October, their most recent league outing.[2][4]
- Wycombe have scored 14 league goals but conceded 20, the joint-worst defensive record in the division.[2]
- Notts County lost 2-1 at home to Oxford United on 10 October but beat Nottingham Forest U21s 5-1 in the EFL Trophy midweek.[2][3]
- Tom Hounsell has been named permanent Wycombe head coach after Michael Duff's sacking and reports an upbeat camp.[2][4]
- Notts County could make changes, with Sanders, Tsaroulla and Finneran in line to come into the side.[2]
- Wycombe used the international break for training after their Bromley fixture was postponed.[4]
Still unclear
- Whether Grimmer and Woodrow start after coming on at half-time vs Luton
- Whether Notts County make the suggested changes (Sanders, Tsaroulla, Finneran in)
- Hounsell says squad generally healthy; exact availability beyond Ings not detailed
Sources
- bucksfreepress.co.uk – Danny Ings remains out as Wycombe prepare for Notts County ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County - prediction, team ... (2026-10-17)
- nottscountynews.co.uk – Notts County News, Fixtures & League One Table (2026-10-17)
- wycombefcnews.co.uk – Wycombe Wanderers News, Fixtures & League One Table (2026-10-17)
- uk.sports.yahoo.com – 'Wycombe will always be my team' - Adebayo Akinfenwa on his ... (2026-10-17)
- footballnews.net – Notts County FC News, Latest Tansfer news | Footballnews.net (2026-10-17)
- the72.co.uk – Notts County will have fingers crossed over Rory Finneran's ... (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Wycombe appointed Tom Hounsell as permanent head coach following Michael Duff's dismissal, and he is shortlisted for a Manager of the Month award.[2][4]
- Notts County face uncertainty over whether Newcastle will recall loanee Rory Finneran in January; the club hope to keep him for the season.[3][7]
- Martin Paterson's Notts County side are under significant pressure amid a relegation-zone position.[2]
Match context
- Stadium
- Adams Park, High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire
- 10,000 seats · grass
- Travel for Notts County
- 149 km
- Rest days
- Wycombe Wanderers 7Notts County 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Wycombe Wanderers 2 · Notts County 2
- Coaches
- M. Duff
- Wycombe Wanderers, 15 months in charge
- M. Paterson
- Notts County, 15 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.87 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Wycombe Wanderers: last 6
LWDWWW · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Luton | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Bristol Rovers EFL Trophy | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Reading | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Wigan | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Chelsea U21 EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Leyton Orient | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWDWD
Notts County: last 6
WLWLLD · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest U21 EFL Trophy | 5–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Oxford United | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Grimsby EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Reading | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Bradford | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Huddersfield | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LDDDD
Season stats
| Wycombe Wanderers | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded per game | 1.40 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 89% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 1.22 | Yellow cards per game | 2.75 |
League matches only, 9 and 8 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Wycombe Wanderers | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | -3 | 12 | LDDWW |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | +2 | 11 | DLWLD |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | +1 | 11 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | -6 | 10 | LDWWD |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | +0 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | -4 | 9 | LDWLW |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | -1 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | -7 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | -7 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | -11 | 8 | LWDLL |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | -3 | 7 | LLLDD |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | -6 | 6 | LDDDL |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | -8 | 4 | LLDLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Wycombe Wanderers won 1, Notts County 3, 2 draws; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2024 | Notts County | 1–0 | Wycombe Wanderers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Notts County | 0–0 | Wycombe Wanderers | League Two |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Wycombe Wanderers | 2–4 | Notts County | League Two |
| 25 Mar 2017 | Wycombe Wanderers | 0–1 | Notts County | League Two |
| 10 Dec 2016 | Notts County | 0–2 | Wycombe Wanderers | League Two |
| 28 Mar 2016 | Notts County | 0–0 | Wycombe Wanderers | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 48% | 26% | 25% | 52% |
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 32% | 59% |
| AI experts | 43% | 26% | 31% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 48% | 27% | 26% | 52% |
- Squad & availability: Availability is near-even: Ings is Wycombe's only absence and Hagelskjær's return offsets it, while County are at full strength and can upgrade their XI. That, plus Wycombe's joint-worst defence, justifies a small shift toward the away side.
- Form, tactics & morale: Wycombe's higher table position and better overall form are tempered by their defensive frailty, while County's winless league run and relegation pressure limit the away case, leaving the model's numbers roughly intact with a small nudge toward the draw.
- Market sceptic: The market tilts home after shortening from 2.00 to 1.95, likely pricing Wycombe's form under Hounsell; trimming home slightly and adding to away reflects Wycombe's leaky defence and the recent 4-1 home defeat.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because both sides' form signals are mixed: Wycombe's home winless record and defensive problems offset County's five-game league slump, while County's clean bill of health and possible lineup upgrades slightly offset their poor results.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:08 | 48% | 27% | 26% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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