Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon prediction
League One · Matchday 11 · Hillsborough, Sheffield
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Wednesday's availability is improving while Wimbledon's squad is stretched. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a slight home edge.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sheffield Wednesday win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- AFC Wimbledon win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Sheffield Wednesday and 1.0 from AFC Wimbledon. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 3–0 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Lumley
Defenders
- Valery
- Bernard
- Cooper
- James
Midfielders
- Bannan
- Mitchell
- Keillor-Dunn
- Slattery
- Gray
Others
- Lowe
Goalkeeper
- Bursik
Defenders
- Yiadom
- Simmonds
- Johnson
- Seddon
- Sasu
Midfielders
- Browne
- Smith
- Harrison
- Hippolyte
Forward
- Stockley
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Tilley | AFC Wimbledon | Out | [3][4] |
| Mathew Stevens | AFC Wimbledon | Out | [3][4] |
| Isaac Ogundere | AFC Wimbledon | Out | [3][5] |
| Dan Sweeney | AFC Wimbledon | Out | [3][5] |
| Donnell McNeilly | AFC Wimbledon | Out | [3][5] |
| Dujuan Richards | AFC Wimbledon | Out | [3][4] |
| Ollie Harrison | AFC Wimbledon | Doubt | [3][5] |
| Ricardo Santos | Sheffield Wednesday | Out | [1][3] |
| Louie Barry | Sheffield Wednesday | Out | [1][3][4] |
| Tyler Onyango | Sheffield Wednesday | Out | [3][4] |
| Max Lowe | Sheffield Wednesday | Doubt | [1][3] |
| Sil Swinkels | Sheffield Wednesday | Doubt | [1][3] |
| Jordi Liongola | Sheffield Wednesday | Doubt | [1][3] |
| Ali Al-Hamadi | Sheffield Wednesday | Doubt | [1][3][5] |
| Liam Cooper | Sheffield Wednesday | Returning | [3] |
Key facts
- AFC Wimbledon are 12th with 12 points from 9 games and have not won in their last three league matches.[2][4]
- Wednesday sit two points off the top two with a game in hand, so a win could lift them into the promotion places.[1][3][4]
- Wimbledon have scored only 7 goals in 9 league games despite a solid defensive record.[5]
- Wimbledon lost 2-1 at leaders Plymouth last time out to a 95th-minute winner after leading through Stockley.[4][5]
- Wednesday's manager Henrik Pedersen has faced questions after three straight draws despite the club's promotion ambitions.[1]
- Wimbledon's manager Jackson expects others to step up with the squad stretched, and younger players may get opportunities.[5]
Still unclear
- Whether Max Lowe and/or Sil Swinkels make the squad/bench
- Whether Ali Al-Hamadi returns to face his old club
- Result of Isaac Ogundere's groin scan
- Whether Ollie Harrison's ankle knock rules him out
Sources
- the72.co.uk – Sheffield Wednesday: Pedersen shares positive Owls injury update (2026-10-17)
- bbc.com – Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon: League One stats & head ... (2026-10-17)
- thewednesdayword.com – Defender out, duo could return and Louie Barry latest: Injury ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon - prediction ... (2026-10-17)
- footballclubforums.com – AFC Wimbledon - Football Club Forums (2026-10-17)
- wimbledonguardian.co.uk – AFC Wimbledon's John Martin dies as club pays heartfelt ... (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Hillsborough, Sheffield
- 39,814 seats · grass
- Travel for AFC Wimbledon
- 227 km
- Rest days
- Sheffield Wednesday 7AFC Wimbledon 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sheffield Wednesday 2 · AFC Wimbledon 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- H. Pedersen
- Sheffield Wednesday, 15 months in charge
- J. Jackson
- AFC Wimbledon, 4 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.87 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sheffield Wednesday: last 6
DWWDDW · 8 scored, 4 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Huddersfield | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Sunderland U21 EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Salford City EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Stockport County | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Wigan | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Peterborough | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDDWL
AFC Wimbledon: last 6
LDDDWW · 5 scored, 3 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Plymouth | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Barnet EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Cambridge United | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Milton Keynes Dons | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Doncaster | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sep | at Bromley | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWLL
Season stats
| Sheffield Wednesday | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | Goals scored per game | 0.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.10 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 56% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 2.12 | Yellow cards per game | 1.67 |
League matches only, 8 and 9 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Sheffield Wednesday | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | +3 | 16 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | +11 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | +7 | 15 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | +7 | 15 | DDDWW |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | +4 | 12 | WLWWD |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | -2 | 12 | LLWDL |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | -2 | 12 | DWDDL |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | -3 | 12 | LDDWW |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | +2 | 11 | DLWLD |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | +1 | 11 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | -6 | 10 | LDWWD |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday won 1, AFC Wimbledon 0, 1 draw; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2022 | Sheffield Wednesday | 2–1 | AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| 16 Oct 2021 | AFC Wimbledon | 2–2 | Sheffield Wednesday | League One |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:04 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:16 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 57% | 23% | 20% | 57% |
| Goals model | 57% | 26% | 17% | 43% |
| AI experts | 59% | 25% | 17% | 45% |
| Our forecast | 58% | 22% | 20% | 57% |
- Squad & availability: The availability gap is larger than the table suggests: Wimbledon miss five senior players across attack and defence, while Wednesday welcome back Cooper and may add Lowe, Swinkels and Al-Hamadi. That justifies a small home bump and a lower away chance.
- Form, tactics & morale: Wimbledon's depleted attack, already low on goals, faces a Wednesday side unbeaten in eight with promotion motivation, but the hosts' three straight draws and manager pressure temper the edge, keeping the home win near 58%.
- Market sceptic: The 1X2 market aligns with the model and the facts, so only a slight home nudge is needed. The over 2.5 looks too high given Wimbledon's 7 goals in 9 and Wednesday's recent low-scoring draws, so we set it below the market.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the model, form and availability picture all point the same way; the small home nudge reflects Wimbledon's stretched squad, while we lower the over 2.5 below the market given both teams' recent low-scoring profiles.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:04 | 58% | 22% | 20% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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