Peterborough United vs Burton Albion prediction
League One · Matchday 11 · Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Voting closed at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Peterborough, 20th with one home league win, host a Burton side 10th but on back-to-back defeats. Peterborough have won four of the last eight meetings, yet Burton took four points from their previous two visits here. Availability is broadly balanced, with defensive absences on both sides.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Peterborough United win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Burton Albion win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Peterborough United and 1.7 from Burton Albion. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (7%).
Lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1A. Bass
Defenders
- 2C. Johnston
- 12Joshua Feeney
- 18Lucca Mendonça
- 14Harley Mills
Midfielders
- 4L. Kelly
- 45Harry Ashfield
- 19Bolu Shofowoke
- 10Ethan Williams
- 11O. Edwards
Forward
- 9H. Leonard
Substitutes (7)
- 26D. Okagbue
- 8B. Khela
- 28M. Garbett
- 7Harrison Jones
- 27D. Ormerod
- 23C. Andeng Ndi
- 17Vernon Masara
Goalkeeper
- 34C. Addai
Defenders
- 6T. Sibbick
- 26F. Delap
- 16C. Tilt
Midfielders
- 17R. Borges Rodrigues
- 4K. Chauke
- 12G. Evans
- 24Harvey Araujo
- 18Caylon Vickers
- 8C. Webster
Forward
- 19M. Dennis
Substitutes (7)
- 20J. Sraha
- 9G. Arubi
- 14W. Collar
- 32J. Kean
- 41Sulyman Krubally
- 10Mark O’Mahony
- 23Emeka Adeile
Official team sheets, updated UK time.
Injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Lewis | Burton Albion | Out | [2] |
| Kyran Lofthouse | Burton Albion | Doubt | [2] |
| Mark O'Mahony | Burton Albion | Returning | [2] |
| Sam Hughes | Peterborough United | Out | [2] |
| Rio Adebisi | Peterborough United | Out | [2] |
| Ben Woods | Peterborough United | Out | [6] |
| Declan Frith | Peterborough United | Returning | [2] |
| Matthew Garbett | Peterborough United | Returning | [2] |
Key facts
- Peterborough sit 20th in League One with 8 points from 9 games and have won only one home league match this season.[1][2][3]
- Burton are 10th with 12 points from 10 games but arrive on back-to-back league defeats against Huddersfield and Doncaster.[2][5]
- Peterborough beat Leicester 3-1 away on 10 October, giving them consecutive wins in all competitions.[2]
- Burton have lost only three away league games this season and took four points from their previous two visits to the Weston Homes Stadium.[2]
- Harry Leonard is Peterborough's dangerman with five goal contributions in his last six games.[2][3]
- Burton's top scorers, Finn Delap and Jack Armer with three each, are both defenders.[2]
- The referee is Craig Hicks, averaging 2.7 yellow cards per game this season.[1]
- Conditions at kick-off are 12°C with light rain and a 14 mph wind.[1]
Still unclear
- Whether Kyran Lofthouse passes fitness
- Whether Declan Frith or Matthew Garbett start for Peterborough
- Burton's response to back-to-back league defeats
Sources
- insidestaffordshire.co.uk – Peterborough United v Burton — match centre (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Peterborough United vs Burton Albion - prediction ... (2026-10-17)
- starting11.com – Peterborough lineup today vs Burton Albion: Starting 11 (2026-10-17)
- gladiatorfootball.co.uk – Peterborough United FC Latest News Headlines on Gladiator ... (2026-10-17)
- burtonfcnews.co.uk – Burton News, Fixtures & League One Table (2026-10-17)
- footballnews.net – Burton Albion News, Latest Tansfer news | Footballnews.net (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough
- 15,142 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Peterborough United 6Burton Albion 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Peterborough United 2 · Burton Albion 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 19 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Craig Hicks
- Coaches
- D. Ferguson
- Peterborough United, 4 years in charge
- G. Bowyer
- Burton Albion, 22 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.87 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Peterborough United: last 6
WWLWLD · 13 scored, 9 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Leicester | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Ipswich Town U21 EFL Trophy | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Stockport County | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Colchester EFL Trophy | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Doncaster | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Barnsley League Cup | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWLDL
Burton Albion: last 6
LDLWDD · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Doncaster | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | at Grimsby EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Huddersfield | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Plymouth | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Nottingham Forest U21 EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Mansfield Town | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: LDWLL
Season stats
| Peterborough United | Burton Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored per game | 1.40 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded per game | 1.60 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 56% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1.56 | Yellow cards per game | 1.70 |
League matches only, 9 and 10 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Peterborough United | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | +7 | 15 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | +7 | 15 | DDDWW |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | +4 | 12 | WLWWD |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | -2 | 12 | LLWDL |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | -2 | 12 | DWDDL |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | -3 | 12 | LDDWW |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | +2 | 11 | DLWLD |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | -4 | 9 | LDWLW |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | -1 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | -7 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | -7 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | -11 | 8 | LWDLL |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | -3 | 7 | LLLDD |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | -6 | 6 | LDDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Peterborough United won 3, Burton Albion 1, 2 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Peterborough United | 1–1 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Burton Albion | 0–1 | Peterborough United | League One |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Burton Albion | 2–2 | Peterborough United | League One |
| 4 Dec 2024 | Peterborough United | 0–1 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 9 Mar 2024 | Burton Albion | 1–3 | Peterborough United | League One |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Peterborough United | 4–0 | Burton Albion | League One |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 06:53 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 10:54 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 48% | 24% | 28% | 61% |
| Goals model | 34% | 29% | 38% | 48% |
| AI experts | 39% | 26% | 35% | 53% |
| Our forecast | 48% | 24% | 28% | 63% |
- Squad & availability: Both defences are weakened — Hughes and Adebisi out for Peterborough, keeper Lewis out for Burton — which supports a slight away lean and a small bump to the over in a league averaging 2.87 goals per game.
- Form, tactics & morale: Fresh form cuts against the statistical model's away lean: Peterborough have two straight wins while Burton are on consecutive defeats with an attack reliant on defenders, so the model is shifted mildly toward the home side.
- Market sceptic: The market's near-50% home price looks generous for a side 20th with one home win, so a few points move to Burton, while the over at around 61% is faded given both teams' modest xG and Burton's low-scoring away profile.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because conflicting signals roughly cancel out: Peterborough's poor league baseline and one home win offset their H2H edge and current form, while Burton's away record offsets their dip. The over is nudged up slightly on weakened back lines, but not far, given both attacks are modest.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 07:53 | 50% | 23% | 26% | First analysis |
| 2 | 17 Oct 11:53 | 48% | 24% | 28% | Official lineups |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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