Leyton Orient vs Blackpool prediction
League One · Matchday 11 · Brisbane Road, London
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Two out-of-form sides meet at Brisbane Road. Leyton Orient have lost four of five home league games this season and scored once in their last three matches, while Blackpool arrive winless in five with three straight away defeats and four defenders out. Orient's availability edge is partly offset by their blunt attack.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Leyton Orient win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Blackpool win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Leyton Orient and 1.2 from Blackpool. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Baxter
Defenders
- Olowu
- Forrester
- Gilchrist
Midfielders
- Stevens
- Gilbert
- Hayden
- Morris
Forwards
- Akhamrich
- Scarlett
- Kabia
Goalkeeper
- Peacock-Farrell
Defenders
- Williams
- Casey
- Ashworth
- Munroe
Midfielders
- Honeyman
- Bowler
- Anderson
- Morgan
Forwards
- Bloxham
- Yates
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Leyton Orient sit 13th with 11 points from 9 games, with a home league record of one win and four defeats.[1]
- Blackpool are 18th with 8 points from 8 games and are on a five-game winless league run.[1][8]
- Orient have scored only one goal in their last 270 minutes and lost top scorer Dominic Ballard to Bristol City in the summer.[1]
- Blackpool have lost three straight away matches, most recently 1-0 at Cambridge United while down to ten men from the sixth minute.[1][3][8]
- Orient can name an unchanged side with no fresh injury concerns.[1]
- Blackpool are missing four players through injury, thinning their defensive options.[1]
- Blackpool captain George Honeyman is available again after his red card at Cambridge was overturned as a wrongful dismissal.[1][5][8]
- Orient lost 9 of 15 home league games in 2026, a joint-worst record across England's top four divisions.[5]
Still unclear
- Whether Blackpool's Finley Munroe is fully fit after a dead leg forced him off at Wigan in the EFL Trophy
- Whether Evatt makes changes beyond restoring Honeyman after the Cambridge defeat
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Leyton Orient vs Blackpool - prediction, team news, lineups ... (2026-10-17)
- bulinews.com – Blackpool - Leyton : Predicted Lineups (2026-10-17)
- sportsgambler.com – Leyton Orient vs Blackpool Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups ... (2026-10-17)
- footballpark.com – Leyton Orient vs Blackpool: Lineups, Predictions & Betting Tips (2026-10-17)
- leytonorientnews.co.uk – Leyton Orient News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)
- lofcforum.com – Independent Leyton Orient Forum - Index page (2026-10-17)
- blackpoolfcnews.co.uk – Blackpool News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)
- footballclubforums.com – Blackpool - Football Club Forums (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Brisbane Road, London
- 9,271 seats · grass
- Travel for Blackpool
- 323 km
- Rest days
- Leyton Orient 7Blackpool 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Leyton Orient 1 · Blackpool 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- R. Wellens
- Leyton Orient, 5 years in charge
- S. Bruce
- Blackpool, 2 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.87 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Leyton Orient: last 6
DLWLLL · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Bradford | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Plymouth | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Stevenage | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Arsenal U21 EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Wycombe | 2–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Bradford League Cup | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWLLL
Blackpool: last 6
LDLLDL · 9 scored, 15 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Cambridge United | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Crewe EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Sep | at Wigan EFL Trophy | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Plymouth | 2–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Bromley | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Reading | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Leyton Orient | Blackpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored per game | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per game | 1.80 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.30 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 44% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 12% |
| 2.22 | Yellow cards per game | 1.62 |
League matches only, 9 and 8 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Leyton Orient | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | -2 | 12 | LLWDL |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | -2 | 12 | DWDDL |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | -3 | 12 | LDDWW |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | +2 | 11 | DLWLD |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | +1 | 11 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | -6 | 10 | LDWWD |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | +0 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | -4 | 9 | LDWLW |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | -1 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | -7 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | -7 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | -11 | 8 | LWDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Leyton Orient won 3, Blackpool 1, 2 draws; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Blackpool | 1–0 | Leyton Orient | League One |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Leyton Orient | 1–1 | Blackpool | League One |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Blackpool | 1–2 | Leyton Orient | League One |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Leyton Orient | 3–0 | Blackpool | League One |
| 27 Feb 2024 | Leyton Orient | 1–0 | Blackpool | League One |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Blackpool | 0–0 | Leyton Orient | League One |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:04 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 43% | 26% | 31% | 56% |
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 26% | 59% |
| AI experts | 46% | 26% | 28% | 55% |
| Our forecast | 42% | 26% | 31% | 55% |
- Squad & availability: Orient have a clear availability edge with no fresh concerns and an unchanged side possible, while Blackpool miss four defenders. Honeyman's return only partly offsets that, so a small tilt toward the home side over the statistical model.
- Form, tactics & morale: Both sides are struggling, so the draw is attractive; Blackpool's four defensive injuries limit confidence in the away side despite Honeyman's return. Over 2.5 stays near the model, trimmed slightly for Orient's scoring drought.
- Market sceptic: The market may underweight Orient's joint-worst 2026 home record and their blunt attack, while Honeyman's return is a mild away boost. Staying close to the market with a small tilt toward the draw and shading under on totals.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market: Orient's availability advantage is real but their poor home record and scoring drought offset it, while Blackpool's winless run and defensive absences cap their chances, leaving the draw roughly unchanged.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:04 | 42% | 26% | 31% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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