Leicester City vs Doncaster Rovers prediction
League One · Matchday 11 · King Power Stadium, Leicester, Leicestershire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Two mid-table sides meet at King Power Stadium with Leicester 17th and Doncaster 16th, both on 9 points. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a small tilt toward the away side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Leicester City win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Doncaster Rovers win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Leicester City and 1.6 from Doncaster Rovers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Forward
- McCarthy; Aluko, Okoli, Kangasniemi, Thomas; Lundstram, Page; Burns, Doyle, Alves; Riis
Others
- Alternative writer XIs: McCarthy; Coulibaly, Souttar, Kangasniemi, McFarlane; Lundstram, Page, Doyle; Cullen, Alves, Riis; Ravizzoli; McFarlane, Souttar, O'Hora, Kangasniemi, Aluko; Lundstram, Page; Howell, Alves, Riis (3-4-3)
Others
- Simkin; Grehan, Byrne, McGrath; Thomas, Gotts, Broadbent, Ayinde; Bailey; May, Hanlan (note: says Thomas ruled out; Tom Nixon expected to replace him)
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Husband | Doncaster Rovers | Out | [1] |
| Jamie Sterry | Doncaster Rovers | Out | [1] |
| Jack Senior | Doncaster Rovers | Out | [1] |
| Jordan Thomas | Doncaster Rovers | Out | [1][4] |
| Tommi O'Reilly | Doncaster Rovers | Out | [1] |
| Bayley McCann | Doncaster Rovers | Returning | [1] |
| Will Smallbone | Leicester City | Doubt | [1] |
| Christian McFarlane | Leicester City | Doubt | [2] |
| Conor Chaplin | Leicester City | Returning | [1][2] |
Key facts
- Leicester sit 17th in League One with 9 points from 8 games and have lost three of their four home league matches.[2][4]
- Doncaster are 16th, also on 9 points from 8 games, and have won their last two league matches without conceding.[1][4]
- Doncaster have kept three consecutive clean sheets, including wins over Peterborough and Burton Albion.[1][4]
- Conor Chaplin is available again for Leicester after seven games out injured, though it is unclear whether he starts.[1][2]
- Leicester's manager may make changes as he remains unsure of his best XI.[2][4]
- This is the first meeting between the clubs since 2014.[4]
- Leicester's home record this season is one win and three defeats, while their away record is unbeaten.[4]
Still unclear
- Whether Conor Chaplin starts or is used off the bench
- Will Smallbone fitness assessment outcome
- Christian McFarlane fitness
- Jordan Thomas availability for Doncaster: includes him in XI but also says injured with Tom Nixon expected to replace; rules him out
Sources
- mysportstab.com – Leicester City vs Doncaster Rovers: Latest Team News and Predicted ... (2026-10-17)
- leicestermercury.co.uk – Leicester City line-ups vs Doncaster as Luke Thomas and Conor Chaplin ... (2026-10-17)
- newsbreak.com – Leicester City vs Doncaster Rovers: Latest Team News and ... - NewsBreak (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Leicester City vs Doncaster Rovers - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-17)
- newsnow.co.uk – Leicester City News | Foxes Transfer Rumours - NewsNow ... (2026-10-17)
- leicestercitynews.co.uk – Leicester City News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Leicester's manager is reportedly under severe pressure, with his future said to depend on the result of this match.[6]
- The Leicester manager was booed after the Peterborough defeat and admitted the side 'don't look like a team'.[4]
- Leicester's proposed £225m sale has passed its deadline without a buyer, adding financial uncertainty and fan frustration.[6]
- Doncaster's manager has urged his players to 'keep progressing' and is pleased with the team's recent defensive record.[4]
Match context
- Stadium
- King Power Stadium, Leicester, Leicestershire
- 34,310 seats · grass
- Travel for Doncaster Rovers
- 98 km
- Rest days
- Leicester City 7Doncaster Rovers 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Leicester City 2 · Doncaster Rovers 2
- Coaches
- R. van Nistelrooy
- Leicester City, 22 months in charge
- G. McCann
- Doncaster Rovers, 3 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.87 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Leicester City: last 6
LLWDWL · 13 scored, 14 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Peterborough | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Oct | at Stevenage EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Fulham U21 EFL Trophy | 6–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Barnsley | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Stockport County | 4–3 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Oxford United | 0–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWLWL
Doncaster Rovers: last 6
WWWLLL · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Burton Albion | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Liverpool U21 EFL Trophy | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Peterborough | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at AFC Wimbledon | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Huddersfield EFL Trophy | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Plymouth | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLDLD
Season stats
| Leicester City | Doncaster Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded per game | 1.10 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.30 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 1.75 | Yellow cards per game | 2.12 |
League matches only, 8 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Leicester City | Doncaster Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | +2 | 11 | DLWLD |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | +1 | 11 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | -6 | 10 | LDWWD |
| 16 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | +0 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 17 | Leicester City | 8 | -4 | 9 | LDWLW |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | -1 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | -7 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | -7 | 8 | WLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Leicester City won 2, Doncaster Rovers 2, 0 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2014 | Leicester City | 1–0 | Doncaster Rovers | Championship |
| 5 Oct 2013 | Doncaster Rovers | 1–0 | Leicester City | Championship |
| 7 Apr 2012 | Leicester City | 4–0 | Doncaster Rovers | Championship |
| 17 Dec 2011 | Doncaster Rovers | 2–1 | Leicester City | Championship |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:04 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 51% | 24% | 26% | 40% |
| Goals model | 37% | 29% | 35% | 26% |
| AI experts | 38% | 27% | 35% | 28% |
| Our forecast | 49% | 24% | 27% | 39% |
- Squad & availability: Doncaster's five absences are mostly depth players and they have kept winning without them, while Leicester's returning Chaplin comes into an unsettled side. This slightly reduces the home edge and keeps over 3.5 low.
- Form, tactics & morale: Leicester's poor form, defensive turnover and off-pitch turmoil contrast with Doncaster's momentum and clean-sheet run, so the away side is upgraded while the draw stays meaningful.
- Market sceptic: The market may be pricing Leicester on name value; the concrete facts point the other way, so a modest shade toward Doncaster is applied while acknowledging contradictory team news.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Leicester's home status and underlying quality still carry weight, but the away side is shaded up slightly given Doncaster's defensive form and Leicester's managerial and squad instability.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:04 | 49% | 24% | 27% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
