Bradford City vs Stevenage prediction
League One · Matchday 11 · University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford, West Yorkshire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Bradford City, second in League One with the division's best defence, host a Stevenage side that won at this ground in the most recent meeting. Both teams concede little, so a low-scoring game looks likely.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bradford City win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Stevenage win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Bradford City and 1.1 from Stevenage. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- McCracken
Defenders
- Pratt
- Pennington
- Baldwin
Midfielders
- Jackson
- Connolly
- Sarcevic
- Touray
Forwards
- Phillips
- Pointon
- Beesley
Goalkeeper
- Setford
Defenders
- James-Wildin
- Vancooten
- Piergianni
- Earley
Midfielders
- Marcal
- Phillips
- Smith
- Sanderson
Forwards
- Kemp
- Magennis
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Marschall | Stevenage | Out | [2] |
Key facts
- Bradford City sit 2nd in League One with 17 points from 9 games and have the division's best defence, conceding 5 goals.[1][3]
- Bradford's attack is a weakness: they have scored only 8 league goals in 9 games, and Jake Beesley has one goal from 9 starts.[1][6]
- Stevenage are 9th with 12 points from 8 games and beat Wigan 1-0 last weekend, with Marcal scoring.[1][2]
- Stevenage have taken 10 points from their last five league games (3W 1D 1L).[2]
- Stevenage have strengthened recently, signing Marcal from Leicester, Smith from Wigan and goalkeeper Setford on loan from Arsenal.[2]
- Will Swan is available and in form for Bradford after scoring twice in an EFL Trophy win over Rotherham.[5]
- Stevenage's manager Alex Revell has promotion ambitions, and Michael Duff describes the side as hard to beat with a set-piece threat.[1][6]
Still unclear
- Whether Beesley can end his goal drought or Will Swan starts up front for Bradford
- Stevenage goalkeeper situation: Marschall listed as no longer available; Setford started last match
- Stevenage shape choice - Revell could vary from usual direct setup
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Bradford City vs Stevenage - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-17)
- starting11.com – Stevenage lineup today vs Bradford: predicted Starting 11 (2026-10-17)
- sportsgambler.com – Bradford vs Stevenage Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups ... (2026-10-17)
- newsnow.co.uk – Bradford City News | Latest Bantams Transfer News - NewsNow ... (2026-10-17)
- bradfordcitynews.co.uk – Bradford City News, Fixtures & League One Table (2026-10-17)
- thetelegraphandargus.co.uk – Bradford City manager admires Stevenage style before game (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford, West Yorkshire
- 25,136 seats · grass
- Travel for Stevenage
- 234 km
- Rest days
- Bradford City 7Stevenage 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bradford City 2 · Stevenage 2
- Coaches
- G. Alexander
- Bradford City, 3 years in charge
- A. Revell
- Stevenage, 3 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.87 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bradford City: last 6
DWDWWW · 9 scored, 2 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Leyton Orient | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Rotherham EFL Trophy | 4–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Reading | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Newcastle United U21 EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Luton | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Notts County | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWLD
Stevenage: last 6
WWWLWW · 16 scored, 5 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Wigan | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Leicester EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Walsall EFL Trophy | 6–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Leyton Orient | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Sep | vs Luton | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Barnsley | 5–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWDD
Season stats
| Bradford City | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.90 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 0.60 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 11% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 22% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2.22 | Yellow cards per game | 1.62 |
League matches only, 9 and 8 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Bradford City | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | +6 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | +3 | 17 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | +9 | 16 | WWDLW |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | +7 | 16 | DWLDD |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | +3 | 16 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | +11 | 15 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | +7 | 15 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | +7 | 15 | DDDWW |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | +4 | 12 | WLWWD |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | -2 | 12 | LLWDL |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | -2 | 12 | DWDDL |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | -3 | 12 | LDDWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bradford City won 4, Stevenage 1, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Bradford City | 0–1 | Stevenage | League One |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Stevenage | 1–1 | Bradford City | League One |
| 11 Feb 2023 | Stevenage | 2–3 | Bradford City | League Two |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Bradford City | 3–0 | Stevenage | League Two |
| 8 Feb 2022 | Stevenage | 0–1 | Bradford City | League Two |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Bradford City | 4–1 | Stevenage | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:04 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 48% | 28% | 24% | 42% |
| Goals model | 38% | 34% | 28% | 28% |
| AI experts | 42% | 33% | 26% | 28% |
| Our forecast | 49% | 28% | 23% | 42% |
- Squad & availability: Both squads are close to full strength, with only Stevenage goalkeeper Marschall unavailable and Setford already having started last week, so availability barely moves the probabilities.
- Form, tactics & morale: Both sides are low-scoring and defensively solid, and Stevenage's recent solidity plus Bradford's new-coach transition argue for a slightly higher draw chance and a low-scoring game.
- Market sceptic: Bradford's blunt attack (8 league goals in 9 games) against a hard-to-beat Stevenage side means the home price looks slightly rich, favouring a modest trim to the home win and a lower over 2.5 estimate.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Bradford's strong home record and league position roughly balance their poor scoring output and Stevenage's solid recent form; the small differences reflect the new-coach transition and Stevenage's unbeaten record against Bradford last season.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:04 | 49% | 28% | 23% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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