Nairobi United vs APS Bomet prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Nairobi to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64% · bookies 64% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean home win, but with doubt: the season stats favour Nairobi United's home scoring, the table adds pressure on them, yet the head-to-head is tight and low-scoring. Sceptic's mild downgrade of the home price fits the evidence, and under 2.5 goals looks the safer direction in all three views.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome attack should edge a low-scoring game
Nairobi United average 2.00 goals per home game while APS Bomet have scored none all season and failed to score in 100% of matches. Bomet keep clean sheets in 50% of games, so a tight, low-scoring home win looks the natural shape.
APS Bomet: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePoints pressure falls on the hosts
Nairobi United sit 11th with two points from two draws and cannot keep drawing forever; APS Bomet are 17th with one point. Neither side has won yet, so caution may rule, but the hosts at home carry the greater need to go for it.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices may overrate the hosts slightly
Bomet have conceded only one goal all season. A 53% home win and 36% for over 2.5 goals look a touch generous to Nairobi United.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Nairobi United are favourites at 53%, with APS Bomet on 19% and the draw on 28%. Nairobi United are 11th and APS Bomet 17th in the Kenyan Premier League. Neither side has won any of their last two matches across all competitions.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Nairobi United win or draw
- 81%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- APS Bomet win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 39%
- No
- 61%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Nairobi United and 0.7 from APS Bomet. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (12%), 0–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 28% | 19% | Stats preview | #1295 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Nairobi United: last 2
DD · 2 scored, 2 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Shabana | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs KCB | 2–2 | D |
Last 1 at home: D
APS Bomet: last 2
LD · 0 scored, 1 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs GOR Mahia | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Mathare United | 0–0 | D |
Last 1 away: D
Season stats
| Nairobi United | APS Bomet | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 0.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 0% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 100% |
League matches only, 2 games each.
Kenyan Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | KCB | 3 | +0 | 4 | LWD |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | +2 | 3 | W |
| 9 | Murang'a SEAL | 3 | +1 | 3 | LWL |
| 10 | Nairobi United | 3 | +0 | 3 | DDD |
| 11 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | -4 | 3 | WLL |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | +0 | 2 | DD |
| 13 | Kenya Police | 3 | -1 | 2 | DLD |
| 14 | Bandari | 3 | -1 | 2 | LDD |
| 15 | APS Bomet | 3 | -1 | 2 | DLD |
| 16 | Mathare United | 3 | -1 | 2 | DLD |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | -2 | 2 | DDL |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 3 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Nairobi United won 1, APS Bomet 1, 2 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2026 | APS Bomet | 0–0 | Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| 4 Feb 2026 | Nairobi United | 1–2 | APS Bomet | FKF Premier League |
| 16 Mar 2025 | APS Bomet | 0–0 | Nairobi United | Super League |
| 17 Nov 2024 | Nairobi United | 1–0 | APS Bomet | Super League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Nairobi United 7APS Bomet 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Nairobi United 2 · APS Bomet 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling