Wrexham vs Preston North End prediction
Championship · Matchday 11 · STōK Cae Ras, Wrecsam
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Wrexham host bottom-of-the-table Preston North End at the Racecourse with both sides in poor form. Our probabilities stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Wrexham win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Preston North End win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Wrexham and 0.9 from Preston North End. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Forwards
- Patterson; Imray, Hyam, Vyner, Doyle, Ekomie; Dobson, Whiteman; O'Hare, O'Brien; Smith
- Alternative (3-4-2-1): Patterson; Hyam, Worrall, Doyle; Imray, Whiteman, O'Brien, Ekomie; Rathbone, O'Hare; Moore
Forward
- Iversen; Offiah, Storey, Hughes; Valentin, Thompson, Leroy, Small; Moran, Devine; Erabi
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
- OutN. BroadheadThigh
- OutL. CacaceCalf
- OutM. CleworthMuscle
- OutM. JamesBack
- OutB. SheafInjury
- OutG. ThomasonThigh
- OutJ. WindassAnkle
- DoubtS. RevanHamstring
- OutH. ClarkeKnee
- OutL. GibbsMuscle
- OutA. McCannHamstring
- SuspendedS. MillsSuspended
- OutB. PottsAnkle
- DoubtT. CarrollAnkle
- DoubtJ. KennyNot available
- DoubtC. WileyNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- Wrexham are 17th in the Championship with 11 points from 10 games, while Preston are bottom with 4 points.[1][2]
- Preston have lost eight of ten league games this season and have conceded 20 goals.[1][2]
- Wrexham have scored only 11 league goals in 10 games and have kept just one clean sheet all season.[1][2]
- Preston's only league win came against Blackburn, with their only other point a 2-2 draw at QPR.[2]
- Wrexham's only clean sheet of the season came in a 0-0 draw at Swansea.[2]
- Preston are four points adrift of safety and risk falling further behind the teams above them.[1][2]
Still unclear
- Whether Kieffer Moore starts or is rested for Sam Smith
- Whether Joe Worrall and Danny Imray come into the starting XI
- Exact extent of Wrexham's injury list (up to seven players possibly out)
Sources
- leaguespy.com – Wrexham vs Preston North End Preview: Injuries and Suspension ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Wrexham vs Preston North End - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-17)
- leaderlive.co.uk – Wrexham team news and predicted line-up against Preston (2026-10-17)
- thewrexhamlad.com – Predicted Wrexham lineup vs Preston North End: Matty James to ... (2026-10-17)
- wrexhamfans.com – Wrexham AFC Latest News Today | Wrexham Fans (2026-10-17)
- si.com – Wrexham News & Transfer Rumors - Sports Illustrated (2026-10-17)
- newsnow.co.uk – Preston North End News | PNE Transfer Rumours - NewsNow » Preston (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Wrexham manager Phil Parkinson is under pressure to justify his position after a poor run of results.[2]
- Wrexham board member Fleur Robinson, a key figure in the takeover, has stepped down from her role.[5]
- Preston manager Graham Alexander is already under pressure after a heavy defeat just two matches into his reign.[2]
Match context
- Stadium
- STōK Cae Ras, Wrecsam
- 19,118 seats · grass
- Travel for Preston North End
- 81 km
- Rest days
- Wrexham 3Preston North End 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Wrexham 2 · Preston North End 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Simon Hooper
- Coaches
- B. Flynn
- Wrexham, 7 years in charge
- P. Heckingbottom
- Preston North End, 2 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.92 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Wrexham: last 6
LDWLDD · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs West Brom | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Southampton | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at West Ham | 0–6 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Burnley | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Swansea | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWDLD
Preston North End: last 6
LLDLLW · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Birmingham | 0–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Millwall | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at QPR | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Watford | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Blackburn | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLLL
Season stats
| Wrexham | Preston North End | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 0.80 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 1.20 | Yellow cards per game | 2.20 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Wrexham | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | -3 | 13 | WLWWL |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | +0 | 12 | LWLLW |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | -1 | 11 | WLDDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | -4 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | -10 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | +1 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | -3 | 9 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | -11 | 8 | LLLLW |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLL |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | -12 | 4 | LLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Wrexham won 2, Preston North End 0, 1 draw; 3.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | Wrexham | 2–1 | Preston North End | Championship |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Preston North End | 1–1 | Wrexham | Championship |
| 26 Aug 2025 | Preston North End | 2–3 | Wrexham | League Cup |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 59% | 24% | 17% | 48% |
| Goals model | 54% | 26% | 20% | 49% |
| AI experts | 55% | 26% | 19% | 50% |
| Our forecast | 59% | 24% | 17% | 49% |
- Squad & availability: Wrexham's deep injury list is partly offset by Doyle's return, while Preston's own absences and heavy defeat limit the away side; the model's home lean is trimmed slightly and totals stay near 50%.
- Form, tactics & morale: The table gap is real but Wrexham's own poor form and injuries cap their edge, so the home win is nudged only slightly above the model while both weak defences keep over 2.5 near the model band.
- Market sceptic: The market's home favouritism is justified by Preston's bottom-table form, but Wrexham's injury depth and low morale justify shading home slightly down and away slightly up, with over 2.5 near consensus.
Verdict: Our final probabilities match the market almost exactly: Preston's bottom-table form and heavy recent defeats justify home favouritism, while Wrexham's extensive injury list and poor morale offset any further boost, and both sides' defensive weaknesses keep the totals line near 50%.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 59% | 24% | 17% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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