West Bromwich Albion vs Blackburn Rovers prediction
Championship · Matchday 11 · The Hawthorns, West Bromwich
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
West Brom host Blackburn at The Hawthorns with two points separating sixth from ninth. West Brom's home form has dipped sharply, while Blackburn arrive with three wins in four, though their latest win relied heavily on goalkeeper Toth. Availability is roughly balanced on both sides.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- West Bromwich Albion win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Blackburn Rovers win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.6 goals from West Bromwich Albion and 1.2 from Blackburn Rovers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 0–1 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Defenders
- Pereira
- Phillips
- Campbell
Midfielders
- Styles
- Molumby
- Diakite
- Nzingoula
- Price
Forward
- Morgan
Others
- O'Leary
- Heggebo
Goalkeeper
- Toth
Defenders
- Alebiosu
- Atcheson
- McLoughlin
- Pickering
Midfielders
- Morsy
- Montgomery
- Morishita
- Cantwell
Forward
- Afolayan
Others
- Gudjohnsen
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
- OutN. GalvesKnee
- OutM. JohnstonBroken Leg
- OutA. ForshawHip
- OutM. LitherlandMuscle
- OutL. MillerAchilles Tendon
- OutY. OhashiHamstring
- OutY. RibeiroHamstring
- DoubtS. WhartonAchilles Tendon
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- West Brom sit sixth in the Championship with five wins from ten, two points ahead of ninth-placed Blackburn.[1]
- West Brom have taken only one point from recent home games against QPR and Birmingham, the latter ending a ten-match unbeaten home league run.[1][4]
- Blackburn have won three of their last four Championship matches since a defeat to Sheffield United in early September.[1]
- Blackburn won 1-0 at Bristol City in midweek thanks to an Afolayan long-range goal and seven saves from Toth, a win Mowbray described as having 'a touch of fortune'.[1][2]
- Blackburn are aiming for three straight Championship wins for the first time since November 2025.[1]
- West Brom are targeting back-to-back Championship wins for the third time this season.[1]
- Mowbray returns to his former club West Brom, and has asked the Venky's owners for reinforcements without success.[1][4]
- West Brom's squad is small in size but was rotated well at Wrexham.[1]
Still unclear
- Whether Scott Wharton features for Blackburn (last-minute decision)
- Blackburn formation: 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3, and whether Carter or Atcheson starts / a defender makes way for Gudjohnsen
- Whether Heggebo and Morgan start for West Brom after returning to XI
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: West Bromwich Albion vs Blackburn Rovers ... (2026-10-17)
- lancashiretelegraph.co.uk – Blackburn Rovers predicted team to face West Bromich Albion (2026-10-17)
- the72.co.uk – West Brom: Morrison reveals positive Tunde, Johnston injury ... (2026-10-17)
- westbromalbionnews.co.uk – West Bromwich Albion News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)
- brfcs.com – - BRFCS & 4000 Holes Magazine (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Mowbray has publicly asked Blackburn's owners for reinforcements, but significant financial backing has not arrived.[1]
- West Brom are aiming to bounce back after a winless run reported at around eight games following derby defeats.[4]
- George Campbell's USMNT call-up could provide a lift for West Brom.[4]
Match context
- Stadium
- The Hawthorns, West Bromwich
- 28,003 seats · grass
- Travel for Blackburn Rovers
- 140 km
- Rest days
- West Bromwich Albion 3Blackburn Rovers 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: West Bromwich Albion 2 · Blackburn Rovers 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 16 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Adam Herczeg
- 4.5 yellow cards and 0.17 penalties per game over 6 games — above the Championship average (3.8 yellows).
- Coaches
- R. Mason
- West Bromwich Albion, 15 months in charge
- V. Ismaël
- Blackburn Rovers, 20 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.92 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
West Bromwich Albion: last 6
WLLDWW · 5 scored, 4 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Wrexham | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Birmingham | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Wolves | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs QPR | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | at Derby | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWDW
Blackburn Rovers: last 6
WWDWLL · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cardiff | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Portsmouth | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Millwall | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Sheffield Utd | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Preston | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLDD
Season stats
| West Bromwich Albion | Blackburn Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.30 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 2.40 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | West Bromwich Albion | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | +6 | 17 | WWDWL |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | +6 | 17 | WDDDD |
| 6 | Wolves | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | +2 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 8 | Southampton | 10 | +11 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 9 | Stoke City | 10 | +1 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | +2 | 15 | WWDWL |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | +0 | 14 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | -2 | 14 | LDWLL |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | -3 | 14 | DDLDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: West Bromwich Albion won 2, Blackburn Rovers 2, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Blackburn Rovers | 0–0 | West Bromwich Albion | Championship |
| 9 Aug 2025 | West Bromwich Albion | 1–0 | Blackburn Rovers | Championship |
| 12 Feb 2025 | West Bromwich Albion | 0–2 | Blackburn Rovers | Championship |
| 23 Oct 2024 | Blackburn Rovers | 0–0 | West Bromwich Albion | Championship |
| 13 Jan 2024 | West Bromwich Albion | 4–1 | Blackburn Rovers | Championship |
| 5 Aug 2023 | Blackburn Rovers | 2–1 | West Bromwich Albion | Championship |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:40 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 08:40 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 50% | 26% | 24% | 46% |
| Goals model | 42% | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| AI experts | 41% | 29% | 30% | 81% |
| Our forecast | 49% | 26% | 25% | 54% |
- Squad & availability: Availability is roughly balanced, but West Brom's poor home form justifies a small shift toward Blackburn, while Blackburn's goalkeeper-dependent midweek win tempers their upside.
- Form, tactics & morale: West Brom's home decline and attacking injuries trim their edge, but Blackburn's recent wins lean on goalkeeping heroics, so the away side is only lifted modestly and totals stay low.
- Market sceptic: The market prices West Brom near 50% at home, but their weak home form and Blackburn's genuine upswing suggest shading toward the draw and away, limited by Blackburn's fortunate midweek win.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the two sides' offsetting factors are already public: West Brom's home decline is well known, while Blackburn's three-wins-in-four run overstates their level given the goalkeeper-dependent midweek win. We shade slightly toward the draw and away, and raise the over modestly above the market.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:40 | 49% | 26% | 25% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
