Swansea City vs West Ham United prediction
Championship · Matchday 11 · Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Championship leaders Swansea City host third-placed West Ham United in a clash between the division's best defence and its top attack. Both sides have notable absences, with Swansea missing four players.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Swansea City win or draw
- 55%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- West Ham United win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Swansea City and 1.4 from West Ham United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Vigouroux
Defenders
- Lissah
- Cabango
- Welsh
- Tymon
Midfielders
- Fulton
- Stamenic
Forwards
- Just
- Yeo
- Vipotnik
Others
- Opoku
Goalkeeper
- Hermansen
Defenders
- Veltman
- Mavropanos
- Kilman
- Morato
Midfielders
- Engels
- Soucek
Forwards
- Bowen
- Castellanos
- Pablo
- Piroe
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
- OutC. BurgessAchilles Tendon
- OutJ. KeyMuscle
- SuspendedF. LissahSuspended
- DoubtS. EustaquioShoulder
- OutK. LamadridInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- Swansea lead the Championship with 23 points from 10 games and are unbeaten at home this season (three wins, two draws).[1][2][3]
- West Ham sit third with 19 points and are unbeaten in eight league games, though their away record includes three draws in five matches.[1][2][3]
- Swansea have the best defence in the division with seven goals conceded, while West Ham are the league's top scorers with 29 goals.[2][3]
- Swansea won 1-0 at Millwall in midweek, their fourth consecutive league victory.[1][2][3]
- West Ham have scored 14 goals away from home, the best away attacking record in the division.[1][3]
- Adam Idah, Swansea's top scorer, is back from a knock and expected to start.[1][3]
- Tomas Soucek has returned from an ankle injury and scored twice off the bench against Lincoln, putting him in contention to start.[3]
Still unclear
- Whether Nuno rotates after the midweek 6-0 (Piroe vs Castellanos, Solomon vs Austbo, Soucek start)
- Whether Adam Idah starts for Swansea
- Whether Ronald starts after his late winner
Sources
- westhamworld.co.uk – Swansea City v. West Ham United: Injury news, predicted XI ... (2026-10-17)
- leaguespy.com – Swansea City vs West Ham United Preview: Injuries and ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Swansea City vs West Ham United - prediction, team ... (2026-10-17)
- hammersheadlines.com – HammersHeadlines.com | Latest West Ham News and Transfers (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- West Ham supporters reportedly expected the team to be top of the table by this stage, adding some external pressure on manager Nuno Espirito Santo.[3]
Match context
- Stadium
- Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
- 21,028 seats · grass
- Travel for West Ham United
- 264 km
- Rest days
- Swansea City 3West Ham United 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Swansea City 2 · West Ham United 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Josh Smith
- 5.5 yellow cards and 0.33 penalties per game over 6 games — above the Championship average (3.8 yellows).
- Coaches
- L. Williams
- Swansea City, 3 years in charge
- Nuno Espírito Santo
- West Ham United, 15 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.92 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Swansea City: last 6
WWWWLD · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Millwall | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Norwich | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Lincoln | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Burnley | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Southampton | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Wrexham | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDWD
West Ham United: last 6
WDDLWW · 20 scored, 8 conceded
| 14 Oct | at Lincoln | 6–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs QPR | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Fulham League Cup | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Wrexham | 6–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Bolton | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWDW
Season stats
| Swansea City | West Ham United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 2.90 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game away | 2.80 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 1.70 | Yellow cards per game | 2.10 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Swansea City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | +9 | 23 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | +6 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 | West Ham United | 10 | +17 | 19 | WDDWW |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | +6 | 17 | WWDWL |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | +6 | 17 | WDDDD |
| 6 | Wolves | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Swansea City won 2, West Ham United 3, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2018 | Swansea City | 4–1 | West Ham United | Premier League |
| 30 Sep 2017 | West Ham United | 1–0 | Swansea City | Premier League |
| 8 Apr 2017 | West Ham United | 1–0 | Swansea City | Premier League |
| 26 Dec 2016 | Swansea City | 1–4 | West Ham United | Premier League |
| 7 May 2016 | West Ham United | 1–4 | Swansea City | Premier League |
| 20 Dec 2015 | Swansea City | 0–0 | West Ham United | Premier League |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:40 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 29% | 26% | 45% | 54% |
| Goals model | 39% | 26% | 34% | 57% |
| AI experts | 36% | 26% | 37% | 56% |
| Our forecast | 29% | 26% | 45% | 54% |
- Squad & availability: The availability gap matters: Swansea are without several regulars including Eustaquio, Key and Burgess, while West Ham are close to full strength and regain Soucek. Swansea's home solidity limits how far this shifts the probabilities toward the visitors.
- Form, tactics & morale: Swansea's unbeaten home record and the division's best defence offset West Ham's attacking output, and the 6-0 came against a nine-man side so it overstates their momentum. Rotation uncertainty on both sides keeps confidence moderate.
- Market sceptic: The market may overreact to West Ham's midweek goal-fest; their 45% win probability looks slightly rich given their poor historical record at Swansea, so the home side is nudged up a little.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the key factors pull in opposite directions: West Ham's superior squad availability and away scoring versus Swansea's unbeaten home record, best-in-division defence and strong recent form. The over 2.5 line also holds near the market level, with West Ham's attack and Swansea's defensive record largely offsetting each other.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:40 | 29% | 26% | 45% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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