Norwich City vs Portsmouth prediction

Norwich City 20th in ChampionshipLLLLL

15:00

Sat 17 Oct · UK time

Not started

Portsmouth 16th in ChampionshipWLDDW

Championship · Matchday 11 · Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk

Who wins? (1X2)

50%26%24%

Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)

Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.

In short

Norwich, 20th with nine points from ten games, have lost five straight and have the division's joint-worst defence, with manager Philippe Clement under pressure. Portsmouth are unbeaten in five visits to Carrow Road.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Norwich City win or draw: 76%
Either team wins (no draw): 74%
Portsmouth win or draw: 50%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 82%
3+ goals: 61%
4+ goals: 38%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 62%
No: 38%

We expect about 1.7 goals from Norwich City and 1.4 from Portsmouth. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (6%).

Lineups Expected

Norwich City

Goalkeeper

Grimshaw

Defenders

Stacey
McConville
Cordoba
Chrisene

Midfielders

Wright
Mattsson
Brooks
Maghoma
Schwartau

Forward

Makama

Portsmouth

Goalkeeper

Schmid

Defenders

Swanson
Poole
Dia
Meghoma

Midfielders

Pack
Adams
Kamara
Segecic

Others

Kavuma-McQueen
Marezi

Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Norwich City

OutA. AhmedKnee
OutP. A. DialloInjury
OutV. KovacevicConcussion
OutK. McLeanInjury
OutM. TopicKnee
OutM. ToureShoulder
DoubtA. CrnacRest
DoubtK. FisherHealth problems

Portsmouth

OutB. ArthurBack
OutL. Brooke-SmithAnkle
OutM. KosznovszkyKnee
OutJ. MurphyGroin
OutC. OgilvieKnee
OutF. UmehHamstring
OutT. WaddinghamAnkle
DoubtK. AndersonOverload
DoubtC. ShaughnessyInjury

From our match data feed · updated 09:10 UK time.

Key facts

Norwich sit 20th in the Championship with nine points from ten games and have lost their last five competitive matches.[2]
Norwich have the joint-worst defensive record in the division with 20 goals conceded, but are among the higher scorers with 17.[2]
Manager Philippe Clement is under pressure with the club near the relegation zone rather than the play-offs expected before the season.[2]
Portsmouth have taken only one point from their last three away matches.[2]
Portsmouth have a lengthy absence list, with around ten players out including John Swift, Keshi Anderson, Josh Murphy and Connor Ogilvie.[2]
Norwich also have several absentees, with Kovacevic, McLean, Topic, Ahmed, Diallo and Toure out and Chrisene, Stacey and Fisher doubtful.[2]
Norwich's recent matches have been high-scoring, and the league averages 2.92 goals per match.[2]

Still unclear

Whether Jack Stacey and Ben Chrisene are fit to feature for Norwich
Whether Keller Fisher recovers from back issue
Whether Tyrese Shade passes fitness test for Portsmouth

Sources

the72.co.uk – Norwich City: Ben Chrisene and Jack Stacey injury updates (2026-10-17)
sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Norwich City vs Portsmouth - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-17)
portsmouthfcnews.co.uk – Portsmouth News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)

Off the pitch

Norwich manager Philippe Clement is under pressure after five straight defeats.[2]
Portsmouth have voiced frustration over the rescheduling of their Wolves fixture.[3]

Match context

Stadium: Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk; 27,606 seats · grass
Travel for Portsmouth: 261 km
Rest days: Norwich City 2Portsmouth 2; Matches in the last 14 days: Norwich City 2 · Portsmouth 2
Weather at kick-off: 11°C · wind 13 km/h; Rain expected
Referee: Gavin Ward; 3.8 yellow cards and 0.20 penalties per game over 5 games — close to the Championship average (3.8 yellows).
Coaches: P. Clement; Norwich City, 15 months in charge; J. Mousinho; Portsmouth, 4 years in charge
Goals in this league: Championship average: 2.92 per match

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Norwich City: last 6

LLLLLW · 9 scored, 17 conceded

14 Oct	vs Southampton	0–1	L
10 Oct	at Swansea	1–2	L
20 Sep	vs Bolton	3–4	L
17 Sep	at Manchester City League Cup	0–5	L
12 Sep	at Middlesbrough	3–4	L
9 Sep	vs Birmingham	2–1	W

Last 5 at home: LLWWL

Portsmouth: last 6

WLDDWL · 7 scored, 7 conceded

14 Oct	vs Sheffield Utd	3–2	W
11 Oct	at Southampton	0–1	L
19 Sep	vs Blackburn	2–2	D
12 Sep	at Charlton	0–0	D
5 Sep	vs Cardiff	2–0	W
1 Sep	vs Derby	0–2	L

Last 5 away: LDLWL

Season stats

Norwich City		Portsmouth
1.70	Goals scored per game	1.30
2.00	Goals conceded per game	1.40
2.00	Scored per game at home	1.60
1.40	Scored per game away	1.00
80%	Matches over 2.5 goals	56%
70%	Both teams scored	56%
0%	Clean sheets	22%
30%	Failed to score	33%
2.20	Yellow cards per game	1.22

League matches only, 10 and 9 games.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
Minutes	Norwich City	Portsmouth
0–15 min	5	3
16–30 min	4	1
31–45 min	2	2
46–60 min	0	2
61–75 min	5	2
76–90 min	1	2

Championship table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	Form
13	Charlton	10	-3	14	DDLDD
14	Bolton	10	-3	13	WLWWL
15	Sheffield Utd	10	+0	12	LWLLW
16	Portsmouth	9	-1	11	WLDDW
17	Wrexham	10	-4	11	LDWLD
18	Lincoln	10	-10	11	LLLWW
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10	WLWLD
20	Norwich City	10	-3	9	LLLLW
21	Burnley	11	-5	8	LDWDL
22	Watford	10	-11	8	LLLLW
23	Derby	10	-10	6	LDDLL

Full Championship table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Norwich City won 1, Portsmouth 2, 2 draws; 2.8 goals per game.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
3 Apr 2026	Norwich City	1–1	Portsmouth	Championship
16 Aug 2025	Portsmouth	1–2	Norwich City	Championship
18 Apr 2025	Norwich City	3–5	Portsmouth	Championship
10 Dec 2024	Portsmouth	0–0	Norwich City	Championship
5 Jan 2019	Norwich City	0–1	Portsmouth	FA Cup

Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC

How we got to these numbers

Home = Norwich City win, Away = Portsmouth win.
	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals
Bookmakers	51%	26%	24%	55%
Goals model	43%	24%	32%	64%
AI experts	43%	26%	31%	74%
Our forecast	50%	26%	24%	61%

Squad & availability: Portsmouth's long absence list, hitting both attack and defence, is the main reason to lean slightly toward Norwich, though Norwich's own six absentees and losing run limit the move. Norwich's high-scoring but leaky profile supports over 2.5.
Form, tactics & morale: Norwich's five-game losing run and worst-in-league defence offset home advantage, while Portsmouth's unbeaten recent record at Carrow Road keeps the away side competitive despite their own away struggles. Both teams' injuries make totals hard to call, but the goals environment favours over 2.5.
Market sceptic: The market may still overrate home advantage for a Norwich side in freefall with a pressured manager, so a small fade toward Portsmouth is justified. Norwich's matches are unusually high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 above the market line.

Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because both squads are heavily depleted and the factors pull in opposite directions: Norwich's losing run and poor defence offset Portsmouth's own absences and weak away form. We raise over 2.5 above the market given Norwich's high-scoring, leaky profile and the league's goals environment.

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published (UK time)	Home	Draw	Away	Reason
1	17 Oct 09:08	50%	26%	24%	First analysis

This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.

This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →

18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling