Millwall vs Lincoln City prediction
Championship · Matchday 11 · The Den, London
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Voting closed at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Millwall host Lincoln City at The Den with both sides in poor recent form. Millwall have won just one of their last five and are missing several attackers, while Lincoln arrive on three straight defeats, conceding 11, and with two players suspended. Lincoln's away record is nonetheless solid, which keeps the away and draw share meaningful.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Millwall win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Lincoln City win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Millwall and 0.8 from Lincoln City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
Lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 34F. Marschall
Defenders
- 4T. Crama
- 6C. Taylor
- 5J. Cooper
- 3Zak Norton Sturge
Midfielders
- 49D. Mazou-Sacko
- 14Jenson Metcalfe
- 17M. Sykes
- 10C. Neghli
- 22K. Lisbie
Forward
- 13L. Dykes
Substitutes (9)
- 45A. Doughty
- 11R. Esse
- 18R. Leonard
- 16D. Kelly
- 12E. Baggott
- 29Z. Lovelace
- 15M. Crocombe
- 25L. Cundle
- 2J. Osei-Tutu
Goalkeeper
- 1G. Wickens
Defenders
- 25D. Elerewe
- 15S. Bradley
- 4A. Coubiș
Midfielders
- 16D. Jefferies
- 24I. Varfolomeev
- 26Y. Konak
- 3A. Reach
- 7R. Hackett
- 17R. Street
Forward
- 34F. Draper
Substitutes (9)
- 20C. Elder
- 23J. Honohan
- 11M. Ladefoged
- 27C. Ogbene
- 19I. Olaofe
- 33D. Oyegoke
- 6R. Towler
- 8T. Bayliss
- 46J. Gauci
Official team sheets, updated UK time.
Injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. CoburnMuscle
- OutC. De NorreMuscle
- OutR. EsseAnkle
- OutM. IvanovicHamstring
- OutL. JensenMuscle
- OutM. LuongoKnee
- OutM. ServaisNot available
- DoubtT. ArconteAnkle
- OutT. DarikwaKnee
- SuspendedT. HamerSuspended
- SuspendedC. McGrandlesSuspended
- OutM. MeliaThigh
- DoubtR. Hackett-FairchildNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- Millwall sit 11th in the Championship with 14 points from 10 games, while Lincoln City are 18th with 11 points.[1][4]
- Millwall have won only one of their last five matches and lost their most recent home game 1-0 to Swansea City.[1][2][4]
- Lincoln City have lost three successive league matches, conceding 11 goals in the process.[1][2]
- Lincoln have taken nine points from five away league games this season, including three 1-0 wins without conceding.[1][2]
- Millwall have conceded only six goals in their five home league matches this season.[1]
- Millwall's top scorer is Dykes with four goals, while Lincoln's leading scorers Hackett and Draper have two each.[4]
- Lincoln average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season.[4]
Still unclear
- Whether Tairyk Arconte recovers from the ankle injury in time
- Coubis and Hackett fitness/doubts for Lincoln
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Millwall vs Lincoln City - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-17)
- the72.co.uk – Millwall vs Lincoln City predictions: The72 (2026-10-17)
- starting11.com – Predicted Championship Lineups · Gameweek 11 | Starting 11 (2026-10-17)
- sportsgambler.com – Millwall vs Lincoln Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds ... (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- The Den, London
- 20,146 seats · grass
- Travel for Lincoln City
- 193 km
- Rest days
- Millwall 3Lincoln City 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Millwall 2 · Lincoln City 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Ruebyn Ricardo
- Coaches
- A. Neil
- Millwall, 22 months in charge
- M. Skubala
- Lincoln City, 3 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.92 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Millwall: last 6
LWDDLL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Swansea | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Preston | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Blackburn | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Newcastle League Cup | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLWL
Lincoln City: last 6
LLLWWL · 3 scored, 15 conceded
| 14 Oct | vs West Ham | 0–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Sheffield Utd | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Swansea | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Preston | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Bournemouth League Cup | 0–4 | L |
Last 5 away: LWWLW
Season stats
| Millwall | Lincoln City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 0.70 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded per game | 1.70 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 1.60 | Yellow cards per game | 2.30 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Millwall | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Southampton | 10 | +11 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 9 | Stoke City | 10 | +1 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 10 | +2 | 15 | WWDWL |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | +0 | 14 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | -2 | 14 | LDWLL |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | -3 | 14 | DDLDD |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | -3 | 13 | WLWWL |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | +0 | 12 | LWLLW |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | -1 | 11 | WLDDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | -4 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 10 | -10 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | +1 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | -3 | 9 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 05:34 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 10:34 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 54% | 26% | 20% | 47% |
| Goals model | 59% | 24% | 17% | 54% |
| AI experts | 57% | 25% | 18% | 52% |
| Our forecast | 54% | 26% | 20% | 47% |
- Squad & availability: Millwall's attacking absences lower their ceiling, so home is trimmed slightly to 55% with a small shift to away. Lincoln's suspensions and fragile morale cap the away share near 19%, and the over is nudged down to 52% given both sides' attacking limitations.
- Form, tactics & morale: Lincoln's crisis form and suspensions justify a small lean toward Millwall at 60%, but their genuine away record and Millwall's blunt attack keep the draw and away share meaningful. The over stays near 55% given Lincoln's leaky defence despite their low scoring.
- Market sceptic: Lincoln's losing run and suspensions outweigh Millwall's injuries, but Lincoln's away resilience and Millwall's weak home record justify shading a few points from home to draw and away. The over is kept near 50%, below the model, given the attacking absences on both sides.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market: Lincoln's three-game skid and suspensions support the home lean, but their strong away record and Millwall's own attacking injuries and modest form mean we keep the draw and away share near the no-vig figures.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 06:34 | 56% | 24% | 19% | First analysis |
| 2 | 17 Oct 11:34 | 54% | 26% | 20% | Official lineups |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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