Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City prediction
Championship · Matchday 11 · Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Voting closed at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Second-placed Middlesbrough, unbeaten at home this season, host a Cardiff side that has lost all four away league games. Cardiff travel without Lawlor and Colwill, with Salech doubtful, though Bielik returns from suspension. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a slight home lean.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Middlesbrough win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Cardiff City win or draw
- 35%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 71%
- 4+ goals
- 50%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Middlesbrough and 1.5 from Cardiff City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 2–0 (6%).
Lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1R. Vítek
Defenders
- 2C. Brittain
- 12L. Ayling
- 4A. Phillips
- 30Neto Borges
Midfielders
- 29A. Malanda
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 8R. McGree
- 9T. Conway
Forward
- 22K. Joseph
Substitutes (9)
- 16J. Sarmiento
- 14M. Peart-Harris
- 17M. Arfsten
- 18C. Barron
- 6S. Berhalter
- 31S. Brynn
- 3S. Byram
- 19Leo Castledine
- 7W. Lankshear
Goalkeeper
- 1N. Trott
Defenders
- 44R. Kpakio
- 5K. Bielik
- 4G. Osho
- 3J. Bagan
Midfielders
- 18A. Robertson
- 11O. Tanner
- 27J. Colwill
- 45Cian Ashford
- 16C. Willock
Forward
- 8J. Moylan
Substitutes (9)
- 2W. Fish
- 43P. Moreno
- 52T. Perrett
- 23C. Scanlon
- 33R. Tankiewicz
- 14D. Turnbull
- 39I. Davies
- 30H. Tyrer
- 50Charlie Holt
Official team sheets, updated UK time.
Injuries and suspensions
- OutA. JonesCalf
- OutR. PukstasInjury
- OutD. StrelecInjury
- OutC. ChambersKnee
- OutR. ColwillAnkle
- OutD. LawlorHamstring
- DoubtY. SalechNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- Middlesbrough sit second in the Championship with 21 points from 10 games.[4]
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten at home this season with four wins and one draw.[4]
- Cardiff are 19th with 10 points from 10 games and have lost all four away league matches played, drawing the other.[4]
- Cardiff had won only one of their first eight league games before beating Watford 5-1 on 13 October.[6][7]
- Cardiff are without Dylan Lawlor and Rubin Colwill for this match, while Calum Chambers remains a long-term absentee.[1][2][3]
- Yousef Salech is doubtful with a shoulder problem and will be assessed before the squad is finalised.[1][2][3]
- Krystian Bielik returns for Cardiff after serving a suspension.[2]
- Jack Moylan has scored five goals this season, including two in the win over Watford.[2][6][7]
Still unclear
- Whether Yousef Salech makes the matchday squad (final assessment pending)
- Extent of Dylan Lawlor's hamstring injury (scan due Friday)
Sources
- cardiffdaily.co.uk – Cardiff City Squad Team News And Injury Updates 2026 (2026-10-17)
- walesonline.co.uk – Cardiff City duo out of Middlesbrough clash as new Calum ... (2026-10-17)
- sports.yahoo.com – Cardiff City duo ruled out of Middlesbrough match – but ... (2026-10-17)
- leaguespy.com – Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City Preview: Injuries and ... (2026-10-17)
- gazettelive.co.uk – Middlesbrough FC news, Boro transfer rumours, fixtures and ... (2026-10-17)
- cardiffcity-mad.co.uk – Cardiff City News - Cardiff City Online - Bluebirds (2026-10-17)
- coverwales.com – Cardiff City news · Cover Wales (2026-10-17)
Match context
- Stadium
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
- 34,988 seats · grass
- Travel for Cardiff City
- 368 km
- Rest days
- Middlesbrough 3Cardiff City 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Middlesbrough 2 · Cardiff City 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Tom Nield
- 2.4 yellow cards and 0.20 penalties per game over 5 games — below the Championship average (3.8 yellows).
- Coaches
- R. Edwards
- Middlesbrough, 14 months in charge
- B. Barry-Murphy
- Cardiff City, 15 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.92 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Middlesbrough: last 6
WWDDWL · 12 scored, 12 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Stoke City | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Wolves | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Crystal Palace League Cup | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDWWW
Cardiff City: last 6
WLWLDL · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Watford | 5–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Blackburn | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Charlton | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Bolton | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Stoke City | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Portsmouth | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLD
Season stats
| Middlesbrough | Cardiff City | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.40 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 80% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1.20 | Yellow cards per game | 1.90 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Middlesbrough | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | +9 | 23 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | +6 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | +17 | 19 | WDDWW |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | +6 | 17 | WWDWL |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | +6 | 17 | WDDDD |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | -1 | 11 | WLDDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | -4 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | -10 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 19 | Cardiff City | 10 | +1 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | -3 | 9 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | -11 | 8 | LLLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Middlesbrough won 4, Cardiff City 1, 1 draw; 3.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2025 | Middlesbrough | 1–1 | Cardiff City | Championship |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Cardiff City | 0–2 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Cardiff City | 1–4 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 3 Oct 2023 | Middlesbrough | 2–0 | Cardiff City | Championship |
| 11 Feb 2023 | Cardiff City | 1–3 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 13 Sep 2022 | Middlesbrough | 2–3 | Cardiff City | Championship |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 10:49 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 64% | 19% | 17% | 51% |
| Goals model | 53% | 23% | 24% | 44% |
| AI experts | 60% | 21% | 19% | 43% |
| Our forecast | 65% | 19% | 16% | 50% |
- Squad & availability: Cardiff are without Lawlor and Colwill, with Salech doubtful, while Middlesbrough have no reported absences, so availability points to the home side. Bielik's return and Moylan's form keep Cardiff from being written off entirely.
- Form, tactics & morale: Cardiff must reshuffle their attacking build-up without two regular creators against the league's second-placed home side. Moylan's scoring run gives them some counterweight, but their defensive absences likely matter more.
- Market sceptic: The market already reflects Middlesbrough's strength, so we only add a small home edge for Cardiff's confirmed absences. On totals we shade over 3.5 down, viewing Cardiff's 5-1 win as an outlier.
Verdict: Our home probability stays close to the market because Middlesbrough's strong home record and Cardiff's away weakness are already priced in; the small edge comes from Cardiff's confirmed absences, while we shade goals down slightly given Cardiff's 5-1 looks atypical.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 07:56 | 65% | 19% | 16% | First analysis |
| 2 | 17 Oct 11:49 | 65% | 19% | 16% | Official lineups |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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