Derby County vs Stoke City prediction
Championship · Matchday 11 · Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Who wins? (1X2)
We rate a Stoke City win 3 points higher than the bookmakers (43% vs 40%). (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Derby are 23rd with one win all season and a severe defensive shortage, while Stoke sit 9th and have won their last two away games. Stoke's midweek defeat and their poor recent away record at Pride Park temper the picture. We shade Stoke slightly above the market but keep a draw alive.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Derby County win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Stoke City win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Derby County and 1.5 from Stoke City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 0–2 (8%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Vickers
Defenders
- Ward
- Nyambe
- Sanderson
- Hedges
Midfielders
- Travis
- Ozoh
- Fuseini
- Clark
- Szmodics
Forward
- Morris
Goalkeeper
- Johansson
Defenders
- Wilmot
- Talovierov
- Graham
- Johnson
- Bocat
Midfielders
- Galbraith
- McGlynn
- Devenny
Forward
- Cisse
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
- OutP. AgyemangAchilles Tendon
- OutE. CashinNot available
- OutM. ClarkeCalf
- OutC. ForsythKnee
- OutS. LangasInjury
- OutD. MurkinHamstring
- OutC. TaylorInjury
- OutJ. Widell ZetterstromKnee
- DoubtM. JohnstonNot available
- OutA. AmpahKnee
- OutA. CresswellKnee
- OutS. GallagherInjury
- OutS. IngelssonMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- Derby are 23rd in the Championship with 6 points from 10 games and have not won at home this season (W0 D2 L3).[4][6]
- Derby lost 4-1 at QPR in midweek and are without a win in their last six league games.[1][4][5]
- Stoke are 9th with 16 points from 10 games and have won their last two away matches, 2-1 at Watford and 2-1 at Bolton.[4][5]
- Stoke's six-match unbeaten run ended with a 3-2 home defeat to Middlesbrough on Tuesday.[4][5]
- Derby have only one fit recognised centre-back, with Hedges deputising at left-back and Nyambe at centre-back.[1][2]
- Stoke have scored in all 10 of their league games this season.[4][5]
- Derby have scored just 9 league goals, among the lowest in the division, and conceded 19.[1][4]
- Derby played on Wednesday and Stoke on Tuesday, giving Stoke an extra day of rest.[1][5]
Still unclear
- Whether Eustace picks Travis or Mowatt in midfield
- Whether Ozoh and Fuseini (both subbed at half-time vs QPR) start
Sources
- derbytelegraph.co.uk – Derby County predicted XI v Stoke City as crisis leaves ... (2026-10-17)
- stokesentinel.co.uk – Derby County hit by major injury blow ahead of Stoke City ... (2026-10-17)
- mysportstab.com – Derby County hit by major injury blow ahead of Stoke City ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Derby County vs Stoke City - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-17)
- the72.co.uk – Derby County vs Stoke City predictions: The72 (2026-10-17)
- derbycountynews.co.uk – Derby County News, Fixtures & Championship Table (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Manager John Eustace is under mounting pressure after one win in 10 games, with fan anger following the midweek defeat at QPR.[1][4][5]
- A defeat could put Eustace's position in real danger, according to previews.[4][5]
- Derby's summer transfer window was disappointing after an investment deal fell through.[5]
Match context
- Stadium
- Pride Park Stadium, Derby
- 33,597 seats · grass
- Travel for Stoke City
- 48 km
- Rest days
- Derby County 2Stoke City 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Derby County 2 · Stoke City 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Oliver Langford
- 4.2 yellow cards and 0.00 penalties per game over 5 games — above the Championship average (3.8 yellows).
- Coaches
- J. Eustace
- Derby County, 20 months in charge
- M. Robins
- Stoke City, 21 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.92 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Derby County: last 6
LDDLLL · 4 scored, 12 conceded
| 14 Oct | at QPR | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Wrexham | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Burnley | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Birmingham | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | vs West Brom | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at West Ham | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLLD
Stoke City: last 6
LWWWDW · 13 scored, 7 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Middlesbrough | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Watford | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Cardiff | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Charlton | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWDLL
Season stats
| Derby County | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.90 | Goals scored per game | 1.70 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded per game | 1.60 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2.60 | Yellow cards per game | 2.30 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Derby County | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wolves | 10 | +3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| 7 | West Brom | 10 | +2 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 8 | Southampton | 10 | +11 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 9 | Stoke City | 10 | +1 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 10 | +2 | 15 | WWDWL |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | +0 | 14 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | -2 | 14 | LDWLL |
| … | |||||
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | -3 | 9 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | -11 | 8 | LLLLW |
| 23 | Derby County | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLL |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | -12 | 4 | LLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Derby County won 3, Stoke City 2, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Derby County | 2–0 | Stoke City | Championship |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Stoke City | 3–1 | Derby County | Championship |
| 3 May 2025 | Derby County | 0–0 | Stoke City | Championship |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Stoke City | 2–1 | Derby County | Championship |
| 22 Jul 2023 | Derby County | 3–0 | Stoke City | Friendlies Clubs |
| 30 Dec 2021 | Stoke City | 1–2 | Derby County | Championship |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:32 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 32% | 28% | 40% | 47% |
| Goals model | 29% | 25% | 46% | 58% |
| AI experts | 26% | 25% | 49% | 57% |
| Our forecast | 30% | 27% | 42% | 48% |
- Squad & availability: Derby's defensive depletion, with one fit centre-back and deputies out of position, is the key factor pushing us toward Stoke, though Derby's strong recent home record in this fixture keeps some draw weight.
- Form, tactics & morale: The form and morale gap is extreme, but Stoke's winless away run at Derby and their midweek loss cap the adjustment; the patched Derby defence supports a higher total.
- Market sceptic: We shade Stoke above the market on squad availability and form, but the venue head-to-head history and Stoke's late midweek defeat keep the move modest, with the draw staying near the market.
Verdict: Our away probability sits slightly above the market because Derby's defensive emergency and winless home record are only loosely priced, while Stoke score in every league game. The H2H history at Pride Park and Stoke's midweek defeat keep us from going further, and the draw stays close to the market.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:08 | 30% | 27% | 42% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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