Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers prediction

Birmingham City 4th in ChampionshipWWDWL

15:00

Sat 17 Oct · UK time

Not started

Queens Park Rangers 5th in ChampionshipWDDDD

Championship · Matchday 11 · St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham

Who wins? (1X2)

48%26%26%

Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)

Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.

In short

Fourth hosts fifth with both sides on 17 points after 10 games.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Birmingham City win or draw: 74%
Either team wins (no draw): 74%
Queens Park Rangers win or draw: 52%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 76%
3+ goals: 52%
4+ goals: 30%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 55%
No: 45%

We expect about 1.5 goals from Birmingham City and 1.2 from Queens Park Rangers. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%).

Lineups Expected

Birmingham City

Goalkeeper

Beadle

Defenders

Osayi-Samuel
Neumann
Klarer
Cochrane

Midfielders

Iwata
Solis
Roberts
Stansfield
Millar

Forward

Priske

Queens Park Rangers

Goalkeeper

Charles

Defenders

Adamson
Dunne
Edwards
Kemper

Midfielders

Madsen
Kamara
Vale

Forwards

Smyth
Lloyd
Kolli

Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Birmingham City

OutM. LeonardAchilles Tendon
OutPaik Seung-HoHealth problems

Queens Park Rangers

OutI. ChairMuscle
SuspendedD. CirkinSuspended
OutK. DembeleKnee
OutT. LampteyNot available
OutA. S. MbengueKnee
OutJ. ObikwuHealth problems
OutK. SaitoNot available
DoubtR. BurrellNot available

From our match data feed · updated 09:10 UK time.

Key facts

Birmingham City sit 4th and QPR 5th, both on 17 points from 10 league games.[1][3][4]
Birmingham have won their last two league games, including 4-0 against Preston in midweek.[1][3]
Birmingham are unbeaten at home in the league this season with one win and four draws.[3]
QPR are unbeaten away in the league with two wins and three draws.[3]
QPR have several attacking and defensive players unavailable, including Ilias Chair and Amadou Mbengue.[1][3]
Birmingham's absences are lighter, with Paik Seung-ho and Marc Leonard out, and Demarai Gray, Max Bird and Taylor Gardner-Hickman closing in on returns.[1][3]
QPR played a midweek game on Wednesday with an unchanged side, giving them one day less rest than Birmingham.[1][5]

Still unclear

Whether QPR rotate after Wednesday's midweek game (no explicit rotation info in sources)
Severity of Mbengue's knee injury
Fitness of Koki Saito
Whether Osayi-Samuel's withdrawal from Nigeria squad affects his availability

Sources

birminghammail.co.uk – Eight players could miss Birmingham City vs QPR clash - 'It's ... (2026-10-17)
mysportstab.com – Eight players could miss Birmingham City vs QPR clash - 'It's ... (2026-10-17)
sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers - prediction ... (2026-10-17)
birminghamcitynews.co.uk – Birmingham City News, Fixtures & Championship Table (2026-10-17)
queenparknews.co.uk – Queens Park Rangers News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)

Off the pitch

Birmingham manager Chris Davies indicated Tomoki Iwata could be in his final season at the club amid his contract situation.[3]
QPR face a possible FIFA dispute over Glen Kamara's early return from international duty, which may affect his availability.[5]
QPR's squad reacted with mixed feelings to Mbengue's injury, with the coach urging players to fight for him.[1]

Match context

Stadium: St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham; 30,009 seats · grass
Travel for Queens Park Rangers: 162 km
Rest days: Birmingham City 3Queens Park Rangers 2; Matches in the last 14 days: Birmingham City 2 · Queens Park Rangers 2
Referee: Thomas Kirk
Coaches: G. Zola; Birmingham City, 10 years in charge; J. Stéphan; Queens Park Rangers, 15 months in charge
Goals in this league: Championship average: 2.92 per match

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Birmingham City: last 6

WWDWLD · 12 scored, 7 conceded

13 Oct	vs Preston	4–0	W
10 Oct	at West Brom	1–0	W
19 Sep	vs Middlesbrough	2–2	D
12 Sep	at Derby	2–1	W
9 Sep	at Norwich	1–2	L
6 Sep	vs Wolves	2–2	D

Last 5 at home: WDDDL

Queens Park Rangers: last 6

WDDDDL · 8 scored, 6 conceded

14 Oct	vs Derby	4–1	W
9 Oct	at West Ham	1–1	D
19 Sep	vs Preston	2–2	D
12 Sep	at West Brom	1–1	D
9 Sep	at Charlton	0–0	D
5 Sep	vs Middlesbrough	0–1	L

Last 5 away: DDDWW

Season stats

Birmingham City		Queens Park Rangers
1.70	Goals scored per game	1.50
1.10	Goals conceded per game	0.90
2.20	Scored per game at home	1.60
1.20	Scored per game away	1.40
70%	Matches over 2.5 goals	50%
70%	Both teams scored	70%
30%	Clean sheets	20%
10%	Failed to score	30%
2.10	Yellow cards per game	1.90

League matches only, 10 games each.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
Minutes	Birmingham City	Queens Park Rangers
0–15 min	1	0
16–30 min	1	3
31–45 min	5	5
46–60 min	2	2
61–75 min	3	3
76–90 min	2	1

Championship table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	Form
1	Swansea	10	+9	23	WWWWL
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21	WWDDW
3	West Ham	10	+17	19	WDDWW
4	Birmingham City	10	+6	17	WWDWL
5	Queens Park Rangers	10	+6	17	WDDDD
6	Wolves	10	+3	17	WLLWW
7	West Brom	10	+2	17	WLLDW
8	Southampton	10	+11	16	WWLWW

Full Championship table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Birmingham City won 3, Queens Park Rangers 2, 1 draw; 1.7 goals per game.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
11 Mar 2026	Birmingham City	1–0	Queens Park Rangers	Championship
9 Dec 2025	Queens Park Rangers	2–1	Birmingham City	Championship
29 Mar 2024	Queens Park Rangers	2–1	Birmingham City	Championship
22 Sep 2023	Birmingham City	0–0	Queens Park Rangers	Championship
18 Mar 2023	Queens Park Rangers	0–1	Birmingham City	Championship
28 Oct 2022	Birmingham City	2–0	Queens Park Rangers	Championship

Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:17 UTC

How we got to these numbers

Home = Birmingham City win, Away = Queens Park Rangers win.
	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals
Bookmakers	48%	26%	26%	52%
Goals model	42%	29%	30%	45%
AI experts	44%	28%	27%	47%
Our forecast	48%	26%	26%	52%

Squad & availability: QPR's availability crisis, with five players out including Chair and first-choice defenders, outweighs Birmingham's lighter absences and returning depth, so I shift two points from away to home. Birmingham's low-scoring home games keep over 2.5 near 45%.
Form, tactics & morale: Two sides level on points fit a near-even model, but Birmingham's home advantage, QPR's short rest after an unchanged midweek XI, and QPR's missing attackers justify a slight home tilt, with Birmingham's draw-heavy home record keeping the draw elevated.
Market sceptic: Starting from the market, QPR's long absentee list, two-day rest and possible Kamara absence justify a nudge toward Birmingham, but their unbeaten away record limits the move. Low expected goals and both teams' recent draws lead me to shade over 2.5 down to 48%.

Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the league positions and QPR's unbeaten away record balance Birmingham's home advantage, but the depth of QPR's absentee list and their short rest after an unchanged midweek XI justify a small tilt toward the home side that the market may not fully reflect.

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published (UK time)	Home	Draw	Away	Reason
1	17 Oct 09:08	48%	26%	26%	First analysis

This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.

This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →

18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling