Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers prediction

Probabilities

"Market" is the bookmaker's price with the margin removed (what that means). Our numbers are probabilities, not tips.

In short

Both sides are on three games in under a week, with Wolves expected to rotate and missing both senior strikers. Burnley are unbeaten in three but winless in the league at home since October 2025, while Wolves have not won in eight visits to Turf Moor. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small tilt from away towards home and draw.

Key facts

• Burnley sit 21st on 8 points, above the relegation zone only on goal difference, with one win in ten league games.[1]
• Wolves are 10th on 14 points but have lost back-to-back matches, including a first home league defeat of the season against Bolton.[1][2][7]
• Burnley are unbeaten in three, including a 4-0 win at Watford, though they conceded a 96th-minute equaliser against Charlton.[2]
• Wolves have scored only three goals in their last five matches.[2]
• Wolves have not won in their last eight visits to Turf Moor, with the last two meetings there ending 1-1.[2]
• Four of Burnley's five home league games this season have been draws, and they have no home league win since 18 October 2025.[3]
• Burnley have dropped 12 points from winning positions this season, compared with Wolves' 4.[1]
• Both teams are playing their third match in under a week, with rotation expected for Wolves including a possible rest for Andre.[2]

Still unclear

• Whether Ahmedhodzic's injury keeps him out and Ekdal starts
• Whether Satpaev returns to the squad
• Extent of Wolves rotation after midweek game (Andre rest, Neave start)
• Fer Lopez fitness after early return from Spain U21 duty

Sources

1. bbc.com – EFL Championship LIVE: Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers - BBC (2026-10-16)
2. sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-16)
3. news.williamhill.com – Wolves 7/1 To Down Burnley In Narrow Win At Turf Moor (2026-10-16)
4. tntsports.co.uk – Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley Line-up: Premier League Football (2026-10-16)
5. burnleyfcnews.co.uk – Burnley News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-16)
6. newsnow.co.uk – Football News Today | Latest Football News - NewsNow » Burnley » Latest ... (2026-10-16)
7. wolverhamptonwanderersnews.co.uk – Wolverhampton Wanderers News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-16)
8. wolves.co.uk – Wolves Express | The Bolton debrief - Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (2026-10-16)

Expected lineups

Expected lineups as reported by the sources above; "A / B" means sources disagree. Official lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Off the pitch

• Burnley and an agent have been charged by the FA with alleged misconduct over a 2025 academy transfer, with responses due 3 November 2026.[5]
• Burnley's chairman ordered an internal review of the winless pre-season programme over physical preparation concerns.[5]
• Burnley manager Nicky Hayen was under pressure after a winless league start but the hierarchy's backing is now paying off.[2]
• Mood among Wolves fans has soured after successive defeats, particularly the 3-1 home loss to Bolton.[2]

Match context

Rest days

3 / 3

Away travel

~135 km

Local kick-off

Fri 20:00

Weather (forecast)

8°C · 6 km/h

League goals per match

2.92

Rest days: Burnley / Wolverhampton Wanderers, since each team's last match.

Form and head-to-head

Head-to-head

• 2026-05-24: Burnley 1–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
• 2025-10-26: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2–3 Burnley
• 2024-08-28: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2–0 Burnley
• 2024-04-02: Burnley 1–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
• 2023-12-05: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–0 Burnley

• Wolves have not won in their last eight visits to Turf Moor, with the last two meetings there finishing 1-1.[2]

How we got to these numbers

Goals model expects 1.73–1.75 goals (Burnley–Wolverhampton Wanderers).

• Squad & availability: Burnley are close to full strength with six players back, while Wolves lack both senior strikers and two defenders and are expected to rotate heavily, so a few points shift from away to home and draw.
• Form, tactics & morale: Wolves are stronger on the table but travel to a ground where they have not won in eight visits, are missing both senior strikers and will rotate, while Burnley's home draw tendency and winless league record argue against backing them fully.
• Market sceptic: The market may be overreacting to table position given Wolves' four attacking absences, expected rotation and their winless run at Turf Moor, so around one point moves from away to home and draw.

Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a small shift from away to home and draw because Wolves are missing both senior strikers, will rotate in their third game in a week, and have not won in eight visits to Turf Moor. On totals we edge over 2.5 slightly above the market given Burnley's leaky defence, tempered by Wolves' blunt recent scoring.

The final number starts from the market and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.